The Cubs' most valuable pitcher this season might come as a surprise to fans

Ben Brown's struggles in the Chicago Cubs rotation have been well-noted over the past few weeks. Against the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, the young right-hander posted two of his worst games of the season with six and eight earned runs given up, respectively. He quickly bounced back with six scoreless innings against the Reds at Wrigley last week, but in general, his time as a starter has been inconsistent, with a healthy mix of disastrous outings, gems, and middling appearances where inefficiency keeps him from going deep into games.

Despite not settling in as hoped, there is at least one measure that demonstrates how valuable Brown has been for the Northsiders. By FanGraphs WAR, his 1.3 mark ranks as the highest among all Cubs starters. Admittedly, he's the least valuable of the National League Central's top pitchers, but there are a few notable arms he's outperforming, like the Rays' Drew Rasmussen (0.9 fWAR) and the Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly (1.1 fWAR).

Now, it should be noted that fWAR tells far from the whole story. It doesn't say, for example, that Brown has an ugly 5.72 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with four games where he coughed up five or more runs. It also doesn't account for the fact that he's surrendering far too much hard contact, as indicated by his 20th percentile average exit velocity and ninth percentile hard hit rate per Baseball Savant. On a larger scale, that number also doesn't reflect well on the Cubs' staff collectively. Matthew Boyd is about as valuable as Brown, despite a more ace-like 3.08 ERA, and the rest aren't even close to breaking 1 fWAR either because of injuries or struggles throughout the year.

However, what it does reflect is the bad luck baked into some of Brown's results. On the year, he has a 3.11 FIP with an expected FIP of 3.23, an xERA of 4.05, and a quite high .374 batting average on balls in play. His 11.28 strikeouts per nine also rank in the 80th percentile of all pitchers, while his 29.3 percent whiff rate lands him in the 77th percentile. There are things Brown does right, even if there is a conversation to be had about more regularly incorporating a third pitch.

The Cubs may have found a way to help him in his last start, too, by deploying Drew Pomeranz as an opener to slow the game down a bit. If that proves to be a consistent fix, it would be a big development that all of a sudden makes the rotation look much better overall. Next to recently-promoted top prospect Cade Horton, Brown still has arguably the highest ceiling of any Cubs starter. With an average 95.5 mph fastball, he represents the type of power pitcher the team has lacked in recent years, and the team undoubtedly hopes he'll stick in the rotation.

Divisional WAR leaders underscore Cubs' need for another starter

Even if Brown is turning a corner, the Cubs need another starter to be a legitimate playoff threat. Boyd and Colin Rea have performed much better than expected so far, but they're not pitchers the team should be relying on to continue throwing at an elite level. Even once Shota Imanaga is back, they'll lack the elite upside needed to hang with the Dodgers or Mets.

One name recently cited as an option by Jeff Passan is Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. Once seen as the crown jewel of the upcoming deadline, he's been ghastly since his return from Tommy John surgery with an 8.47 ERA and 5.37 FIP. However, his Cy Young-winning upside at what could be a reduced trade cost could entice the Cubs to roll the dice. Other possibilities that could be on the move if their teams continue to struggle are Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez, but there's still too much time between now and July 31 to say for certain who's available.