The Cubs' clock is running on Matt Shaw ahead of MLB trade deadline

It’s time for Matt Shaw to demonstrate whether he has a major league present.

The spotlight is on Shaw for two big reasons. First, the Cubs face an extended stretch where they will see almost nothing but .500 or better teams. Through the All Star break, they play 15 games against the Cardinals, Astros, Guardians and Yankees, teams that are a combined 33 games above  .500. They have just three against one team (the Twins) that is below .500, and only by four games.

The second reason is the trade deadline. Team President Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins have one month to decide whether they have to fix a major problem at third base, which is normally a high-production position. Only Shaw can allow Hoyer and Hawkins to focus elsewhere.

Matt Shaw needs to mature fast, or the Cubs will replace him for 2025

A few weeks ago, Shaw’s progress since returning from minor league exile looked reassuring.  He hit .359 with a .906 OPS in 11 May games. Since June 1, however, opposing pitchers have  figured out Shaw’s strengths and weaknesses, and he hasn’t adjusted.

In 63 June at bats, he’s hitting just .175 with a miserable .494 OPS. He has been held hitless in eight of his 10 game appearances since June 11. He has struck out eight times in that stretch, is hitting .071, and his OPS has fallen from a so-so .678 to an embarrassing .610.

What opposing pitchers appear to have figured out against Shaw ranks with the game’s most basic pitching premises: heat him up. He entered Tuesday night’s game in St. Louis batting just .200 with a .306 slugging average against fastballs, and just .104 with a .208 slugging average against your basic four-seamer.

That has to change, and soon. In a league where about one-third of all pitches are four-seamers, a batter who can consistently be beaten by a basic riding fastball has no value to his team. The supplementary data on Shaw’s offense mostly confirms the obvious, but for the record, here it is.

Shaw is batting .136 when the pitcher is ahead in the count. Rare is the hitter who excels at two-strike situations, but the major league average is about 40 points higher than Shaw’s.

According to Baseball Savant, Shaw’s average exit velocity is 82.7 mph. That’s bottom one percent in a league where the average is 88.5 mph.

His hard hit rate is 24.4 percent. That’s bottom two percent, the MLB average being 36.8 percent.

His 31.6 percent chase rate – that’s how often he swings at pitches outside the strike zone -- is in the bottom quartile.

His 9.7 degree launch angle is well below the 12.4 percent MLB average. Translation: Shaw hits a lot of ground balls, and does so weakly.

Now, there are pluses. His nine percent walk rate is better than the 8.4 percent average, an accomplishment for a rookie who is otherwise not flourishing in the batter’s box. Likewise, his 20.8 percent strikeout rate is below the 22.2 percent average.

He also has displayed elite running speed and he remains a positive force at third as measured by Defensive Runs Saved.

Those hoping, pulling and possibly praying for Shaw’s success can — for a short time, anyway — find hope in recent history. Through 178 plate appearances last year, where Shaw is today, Milwaukee rookie Jackson Chourio was batting just .214 with a .602 OPS.

Then, Chourio figured things out. He hit .310 with a .914 OPS the second half and led the Brewers to the NL Central division title… though it probably wasn’t necessary to remind Cubs fans of that last fact.

One thing is for certain: If the Cubs are serious about contending in 2025, they need production out of the third base position. Across MLB in 2024, third base was the second most productive of the nine regular offensive positions as measured by Win Probability Added, trailing only shortstop.

Shaw has a limited amount of time to demonstrate that he can hit major league pitching. The alternative, at least for this season, is to look outside the organization, and the clock on that is ticking.