The cost of a potential Nico Hoerner extension seems to be coming into focus

Nico Hoerner will be the Chicago Cubs' starting second baseman in 2026. The question is whether or not he'll be manning the keystone beyond this season.

Trade rumors have swirled around the two-time Gold Glover and fellow infielder Matt Shaw for much of the offseason and, now, with spring training underway, things seem to have quieted - at least on the Hoerner front. Personally, my hope is that Jed Hoyer pulls off another springtime extension, the same as he did with Hoerner and Ian Happ a few years back.

But this time around, we're talking about a much larger investment.

Cubs need to get a Nico Hoerner extension done this spring

A month ago, I pondered what a Hoerner extension could look like, landing on something in the range of five years and $110 million, which would keep him in Chicago through his age-34 season. In a new subscriber-only piece at MLB Trade Rumors, their team of experts put their heads together to think through a new deal for the veteran infielder, and it's very similar to my initial estimate.

I definitely encourage you to subscribe and get the full piece (and all the great coverage over at MLBTR) - but Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams came up with something in the $110-140 million range would get a deal done. Dierkes came in on the higher end of that scale, with Adams and Franco thinking $110-120 million was closer to the mark.

I tend to agree with the latter estimate. Still, the piece made some great points about the relative weakness of next winter's free-agent class and Hoerner's ability to play elite defense at shortstop, which could drastically improve and expand his market. Of course, that could be at least partially offset by the fact that the Cubs will undoubtedly extend a qualifying offer to Hoerner if they can't reach an extension before then, attaching him to draft pick compensation.

It's worth noting the Cubs have only done six $100+ million contracts in franchise history: Jason Heyward, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Jon Lester, Yu Darvish and Alfonso Soriano. So a deal in this range would put Hoerner in rare company.

Another 5.0 WAR season could change the equation entirely for Hoerner, who narrowly missed out on the NL batting title in 2025. Given the exodus set to take place at season's end in Wrigleyville, with Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and - for now, Hoerner - set to hit free agency, Hoyer could maintain a semblance of stability by getting a deal done before Opening Day.