The Chicago Cubs' 2024 home run total tells a scathing story of offensive inconsistency

For a team that people have been saying needs more home run power for several years now, their dip in homers in 2024 from 2023 was very noticeable. In 2024, the Cubs slugged 170 homers (21st in baseball), a 26-home-run difference from the 196 they hit in 2023. Once again nobody reached the 30-homer mark; Ian Happ led the team with 25. No Cub has reached the 30-homer mark since 2019 when Kyle Schwarber (38) and Kris Bryant (31) both did that season.

What were some key factors? First looking at the totals from key guys in the lineup. Happ and Sieya Suzuki were right around where they were in 2023. The added 21 homers from Michael Busch was nice to have at first base. However, Cody Bellinger dipped from 26 to 18, the lowest home run total in his career in a season in which he played at least 100 games. Dansby Swanson also dipped from 22 to 16, breaking a run of three straight seasons of 20+ homers. Christopher Morel hit 18 before being traded and Patrick Wisdom hit only eight homers after hitting 23 in 2023.

It was disappointing that guys like Bellinger and Swanson did not bring the power they brought in previous years to the table in 2024. Especially Bellinger who was brought back to be a primary run producer on the team. Injuries to his ribs and finger could have played a factor there. While a bench/depth guy, Wisdom had his value when he could hit 20+ bombs a year but the Cubs are probably at the end of the road after his struggles this season. Morel likely slugs 20+ in Chicago if he does not get traded, but his other offensive struggles factored into the decision to deal him for Isaac Paredes who, despite hitting .288 with a .375 OBP in September, did not bring much home run pop at all.

While mentioning injuries to guys like Bellinger, there are other factors to look at. A big one is the home/road splits. The Cubs were a much better offense on the road than at Wrigley in 2024. They hit .256/.331/.416 with 92 home runs on the road vs. .227/.302/.368 with 78 home runs at home. That's a 14-home-run difference. In 2023, they hit 104 home runs at home vs. 92 on the road, so a 26-home-run difference at Wrigley between the two seasons.

The Cubs' 2024 home run total defines the team's offensive failures

Fans may roll their eyes at President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer's comments regarding the weather in his after-season presser. While not necessarily an excuse for missing the postseason, there were many times the wind prevented flyballs off Cubs bats from leaving the yard. There are plenty of games like that at Wrigley Field every season, but the frequency seemed a bit different. According to MLB Statecast, Wrigley Field was 28th in ballpark factors for home runs in 2024 with a score of 85 (100 is average), right near the bottom. In 2023 Wrigley Field was 11th with a score of 105. Several things go into that stat, but it's worth noting. The environmental factor itself, measured by Statcast, showed an average of -6.2 of extra distance in feet, the lowest in eight years.

Ultimately, the Cubs still need more slugging on the team. They need a guy who can hit 30+ homers and ideally be in the top third in baseball in homers as a team. While that's an arbitrary area to shoot for, this postseason is showing how valuable the home run is. It's difficult to look at the current roster and confidently say anyone will hit 30+ bombs next year. The likes of Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Busch, and Swanson all can reach low-mid 20s, which is fine in a vacuum, but reaching 30 seems like a stretch unless Bellinger takes another gulp from the fountain of youth, Suzuki is fully healthy and slugs a bit more and/or Busch takes another leap forward. Impossible? No, but it's not easy to bet on. Additions via the farm, trade, or free agency will have to be made to address it.