The 2025 Chicago Cubs roster speaks to a curious MLB Draft trend

The Cubs position players are almost all First Rounders. The pitchers? Not so much.

Miami Marlins v Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins v Arizona Diamondbacks | Norm Hall/GettyImages

Since the advent of the Amateur Baseball Draft in 1965, lore has developed around the ability to find Hall of Fame talents in the very late rounds. Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round, John Smoltz in the 22nd, and Ryne Sandberg was taken by the Phillies in the 20th round. Considering that there are approximately 1,000 major leaguers during any one season and that minor league teams need to be populated, basic mathematics dictate that the vast majority of players will not be first-rounders.

With that perspective, the 2025 Chicago Cubs lineup more closely resembles an NBA team. Of the starting eight positional players (whether it's Matt Shaw or Alex Bregman), seven were first-round picks. Of those seven, five were drafted out of college. The two drafted out of high school, Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, were drafted by other organizations. By contrast, the Los Angeles Dodgers counted only Will Smith and Gavin Lux as first-round starters.

The Cubs' pitching staff reveals a very different story. Of the projected starters, only Jameson Taillon was a first-round pick. The only other pitchers on the 40-man roster who were first-round draft picks are Nate Pearson and Jordan Wicks. Currently non-rostered, Cubs 2022 first-round pick Cade Horton may make his MLB debut this year.

The Chicago Cubs' 2025 roster is telling of some MLB Draft truths.

It is not necessarily the case that the roster reflects the organization's draft preferences. Only six of the projected roster spots are held by Cubs draftees. It is more likely a reflection of the recipe for big-league success. College hitters with a strong pedigree are the most likely draftees to have a successful career. As a result, the accomplished hitter you sign or trade for was likely a high pick. The Dodgers' acquisitions of Mookie Betts and Freddy Freeman, non-first rounders both, are consistent with the theme of paying a premium for accomplished MLB hitters.

The pitcher with a history of success likely did not follow the same trajectory. Amateur pitchers are plentiful, are more likely to get injured than position players, and have a higher variability of performance. Would it not make sense that they might be drafted anywhere and drawn from all over amateur baseball? This is indeed the case.

What can be deduced from these facts is familiar. Teams with greater revenues can always supplement their rosters with the successful draft picks of poorer organizations. Revenue-constrained teams can only hope to compete by putting together several outstanding drafts and quickly bringing those players to the big leagues. The Cubs 2025 roster clearly illustrates that they are in the former group.

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