Reds' Chase Burns contract extension shows hidden incentive for Cubs 2026 draft class

The Chicago Cubs squashed their allergy to drafting pitchers during the 2026 MLB Draft. The Cubs used 16 of their 21 selections in this year's draft on pitchers, and the Cincinnati Reds may have just proved why that can be a valuable thing.

Beyond the draft, the Cubs have also been allergic to spending at that the top of the market for pitching. It's more or less why they bowed out of the bidding for Dylan Cease last offseason once the number approached $200 million. There's value in developing a homegrown ace, and the Reds just proved that.

The Reds and Chase Burns have agreed to a seven-year extension worth $105 million. The deal includes no opt-outs, and buys out all of Burns' arbitration seasons and his early free agency years. Had Cade Horton stayed healthy, this is the type of deal that Cubs fans could have expected.

Cubs may benefit from hidden ripple effect of Chase Burns' contract extension.

Selected by the Reds with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Burns made his debut in Cincinnati the following season. In a tick over 43 innings pitched, Burns posted an ERA of 4.57 while striking out over 35% of the hitters he faced. As was the case for Horton, the Reds moved Burns exclusively to the rotation this season, and the result was a 2.54 ERA through his first 18 starts. In other words, Burns is going to be a problem for the Cubs for a very long time.

Given the injury, this type of extension for Horton is likely off the table. That said, this is where the value comes in from the Cubs taking 16 pitchers in this year's draft. They aren't going to hit on each of those selections, but chances are there will be a success story or two.

If there is, that could be how the Cubs sidestep their preference to not spend money on established aces. As the Reds just proved, even though the deal is historic in nature, it's still much cheaper than the one Burns would have signed once he fit free agency originally. It's also a strategy they deployed before, signing Hunter Greene to a six-year extension worth $53 million.

No, Cade Townsend isn't the same type of pitching prospect that Burns or Greene were in their respective draft classes, but if the Cubs develop him into an established starting pitcher, that could be where they ultimately find the money to lock down a true ace.

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