Ranking the National League Central's first basemen

We'll continue our exploration of the positions around the NL Central today ranking the first basemen within the division (if you missed the first installment, a breakdown of the catchers in the division is here). With the departure of Paul Goldschmidt, the old trio of him, Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo have all migrated out of the division or retired. A fiery former Cub opens up our list in his first year at the position in St. Louis.

1. Willson Contreras, Cardinals

Contreras has been plagued by injuries the last few years, which limited his at-bats. A shift to only playing 1B and DH in 2025 should give him the opportunity to break 500 plate appearances for the first time in his career and give him a real shot at crossing the 30 homerun mark as well.

Contreras is an extremely valuable hitter- he has elite exit velocities and walks a ton, and his .814 career OPS (.848 in 2024) reflects the positive outcomes that those two things typically result in. The former Cub is by far the most proven hitter at first base in the Central, and I see him having a career year in 2025 when you combine the outstanding 2024 advanced metrics with significantly higher plate appearances. The glove is a little harder to project, as his fielding performance behind the plate has been suspect for many years. However, his athleticism has never been in question and he's shown the ability to play multiple corner positions in the past. I expect him to be, at minimum, just below average at the position. The rest of the players in the Central have not displayed the consistency or track record that Contreras has to rank above him.

2. Michael Busch, Cubs

The former top prospect finally got an everyday playing opportunity in 2024, and took advantage of it. Busch posted an OPS+ of 118 and piled up 51 extra-base hits while hitting in the middle of Craig Counsell's order. His glove also improved notably as the year progressed, and he projects to be an above-average defender at first in 2025. In a normal situation, one might add up his on-base skills with his power and the fact he's entering just his second full season to conclude that Busch is a burgeoning All-Star.

To me though, Busch is the type of player that is extremely hard to project and analyze. Steamer's 2025 projections for him have him taking a step back this year as a result of a decreased BABIP. Busch has some major holes in his swing that lead to high chase and strikeout rates which limit his upside if he doesn't correct. The rest of the NL Central is extremely weak at first base, so Busch still sits at second in these rankings but he'll be one of the Cubs I'm looking forward to watching most in Spring Training. Keep an eye on the left-hander's ability to lay off down and break pitches- it will surely have been a central focus for him this offseason, and his growth in that department will be indicative if he has another level in him at the plate.

3. Spencer Horwitz, Pirates

Horwitz has been an overachiever ever since he was drafted in the 24th round from Radford University. Over parts of four seasons in the minors, Horwitz worked himself up into the top 10-15 prospects across the Blue Jays ecosystem and had a fairly successful season last year after a cup of coffee in 2023. The Jays bounced him back and forth between first and second, but the Pirates figure to keep him at first most of the year.

He's a pretty interesting player and a bit of an oddity as a first basement- he's relatively small at 5'10", 190 pounds, and is a high contact, low strikeout guy. The lefty hitter has added just enough pop at the plate (12 homers in 328 at-bats in 2024) to make him dangerous in the bigs. Horwitz's approach at the plate reminded me a bit of Jake Cronenworth in his first full season because of that disciplined approach at the plate, middling power, and ability to play multiple positions. For now, the lack of power potential holds him back a little but he screams to me to be a guy that will frustrate Cubs fans with his quality approach at the plate.

4. Rhys Hoskins, Brewers

Give Jed Hoyer credit where credit is due- it looks like he dodged a major bullet by avoiding Hoskins in last year's free agency despite a contingent of Cubs fans clamoring to sign him. The hulking first baseman struck out in just under 29% of his at-bats and had an xBA of just .202 (!) coming off missing the entirety of 2023 due to injury. Hoskins really struggled against righties, posting just a .703 OPS against them. He also continued to rate out horribly defensively and continues to be one of the slowest and worst base runners in the Majors as well.

That being said, Hoskins has always slugged and he maintained that ability in 2024 with 26 homers. The Brewers' lineup lost a ton of power after losing Willy Adames and Gary Sanchez, and Christian Yelich is reportedly still not doing baseball activities. Hoskins could be an attractive bounceback candidate if he can bring his walk rate back up to his career average and cut down on the strikeouts.

5. Jeimer Candelario, Reds

It's tough to know exactly how the Reds' glut of position players will play out. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will most likely get significant at-bats playing first as well. Fangraphs projects Candelario to get the majority of the playing time, though, so we will include him as the Reds' choice here. Candelario was one of the worst everyday players in the league last year- his OPS plummeted 100 points from 2023, powered by a precipitous increase in strikeout rate and other pretty atrocious Statcast metrics. The Reds invested $45 million into Candelario but really don't need to be playing him every day if the rest of the team is healthy. Despite some decent power numbers, his walk rate fell significantly alongside the strikeout rate increasing to power a -.7 WAR season. There's a pretty good chance that Candelario will become a permanent bench guy if his struggles continue into 2025. The Reds have so many options with Matt McClain back in the mix- between Noelvi Marte and Santiago Espinal at third, Encarnacion-Strand and McClain at first, and Will Benson in the left (a massive bounce-back candidate), it's easy to chart Candelario's path to the bench.