Ranking the National League Central's first basemen

2. Michael Busch, Cubs

The former top prospect finally got an everyday playing opportunity in 2024, and took advantage of it. Busch posted an OPS+ of 118 and piled up 51 extra-base hits while hitting in the middle of Craig Counsell's order. His glove also improved notably as the year progressed, and he projects to be an above-average defender at first in 2025. In a normal situation, one might add up his on-base skills with his power and the fact he's entering just his second full season to conclude that Busch is a burgeoning All-Star.

To me though, Busch is the type of player that is extremely hard to project and analyze. Steamer's 2025 projections for him have him taking a step back this year as a result of a decreased BABIP. Busch has some major holes in his swing that lead to high chase and strikeout rates which limit his upside if he doesn't correct. The rest of the NL Central is extremely weak at first base, so Busch still sits at second in these rankings but he'll be one of the Cubs I'm looking forward to watching most in Spring Training. Keep an eye on the left-hander's ability to lay off down and break pitches- it will surely have been a central focus for him this offseason, and his growth in that department will be indicative if he has another level in him at the plate.

3. Spencer Horwitz, Pirates

Horwitz has been an overachiever ever since he was drafted in the 24th round from Radford University. Over parts of four seasons in the minors, Horwitz worked himself up into the top 10-15 prospects across the Blue Jays ecosystem and had a fairly successful season last year after a cup of coffee in 2023. The Jays bounced him back and forth between first and second, but the Pirates figure to keep him at first most of the year.

He's a pretty interesting player and a bit of an oddity as a first basement- he's relatively small at 5'10", 190 pounds, and is a high contact, low strikeout guy. The lefty hitter has added just enough pop at the plate (12 homers in 328 at-bats in 2024) to make him dangerous in the bigs. Horwitz's approach at the plate reminded me a bit of Jake Cronenworth in his first full season because of that disciplined approach at the plate, middling power, and ability to play multiple positions. For now, the lack of power potential holds him back a little but he screams to me to be a guy that will frustrate Cubs fans with his quality approach at the plate.