Ranking the last 10 Chicago Cubs first-round draft picks, from worst to best

The Chicago Cubs currently have a healthy farm system, with seven players in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects list. This is partially due to the team turning a corner on evaluating young players and hitting on some of their high draft picks.

A lot of these draft picks are on the cusp of the majors or have already debuted in Chicago, contributing to the top-heavy farm. The last four drafts have yielded fantastic results, in contrast to the team's previous efforts in the 2010's, especially in the pitching department.

To highlight this turnaround, I'm going to rank the last ten first-round draft picks taken by the Chicago Cubs based on how the players turned out and their value to the team through contributions/trade value.

10. RHP Ryan Jensen: 27th overall in 2019

The Cubs selected right-handed pitcher Ryan Jensen 27th overall in 2019, and the organization seemed to project him as a starting pitcher in the majors for a while. But his small 6'0 190-pound frame and command issues hindered those chances.

In Jensen's 272 1/3 innings pitched across all levels of the minor leagues, he sports a career 4.49 ERA and a 328:188 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The high strikeout totals are nice on paper but do not make up for the insane amount of walks issued by the former Cubs farmhand.

After failing to establish himself as both a starter and reliever with the Cubs, Jensen was placed on waivers in 2023. After brief stints with the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins, Jensen made his way to the Minnesota Twins. In 2024, he made 44 appearances for Minnesota's Triple-A affiliate, where he again continued the high strikeout, high walk pattern.

Unfortunately, the Cubs overprojected Jensen's abilities and they were unable to cash in on a notoriously stacked 2019 draft class. Some of the players selected after Jensen that year include 2024 All-Star Gunnar Henderson (42nd), Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe (30th), White Sox catcher Korey Lee (32nd) and current Cubs first baseman Michael Busch (31st).

9. SS Ed Howard: 16th overall in 2020

This was a pick that should have netted the Cubs a future cornerstone of the big-league roster. Jed Hoyer was on the cusp of starting a rebuild and there were plenty of quality players to choose from in the class, including Pete Crow-Armstrong.

But the team opted for the hometown kid Ed Howard, a 6'2 shortstop who was drafted out of Mount Carmel High School. Drafting hitters out of high school is fairly risky in general. But taking one 16th overall and committing $3.745 million to him, only for him to completely come up short is not a good look.

At 22 years old, Howard has failed to make it further than the High-A South Bend Cubs in his four years with the organization. Howard also features an ugly career slash line of .225/.281/.298 in 260 Minor League games, with 22 stolen bases and 46 extra-base hits. This is certainly the most disappointing first-round selection since Jed Hoyer took over the front office in 2019.

8. LHP Brendon Little: 27th overall in 2017

Brendon Little is another guy who is no longer in the Cubs system after failing to live up to expectations. The southpaw saw flashes of success throughout his seven years, initially as a starter and later a reliever.

But he only features two pitches and, similar to Jensen, Little had severe command issues. A scouting report from 2021 also suggested Little's velocity dipped significantly the longer he was on the mound, effectively cementing him as a bullpen guy long-term. 2023 saw Little make 50 appearances out of the Triple-A bullpen with a 4.05 ERA and 73 strikeouts in as many innings.

In hindsight, Little would provide nice depth as a lefty specialist on the Cubs' current roster. But his stuff was probably not good enough to warrant a 40-man roster spot in the front office's eyes. He was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for cash last offseason, where he made 49 appearances with a 3.74 ERA in 2024.

Although he found success as a lefty specialist in 2024, the fact that the Cubs took him in the first round just shows their previous inability to properly evaluate pitchers.

7. RPH Alex Lange: 30th overall in 2017

Taken just three spots after Little in 2017, Alex Lange has seen much more major-league pitching success than Jensen and Little. Over the last four seasons, Lange sports a 3.72 ERA over 183 2/3 innings pitched, with 221 strikeouts. He has spent his entire MLB career with the Detroit Tigers, however, as he was the main piece in the Nick Castellanos trade in 2019.

The deal was worth it since Castellanos had a thunderous late-season impact on the Cubs that year. Lange eventually emerged as a high-leverage reliever, and he served as Detroit's primary closer in 2023.

It'd be nice for the team to still have Lange on the roster given the team's lack of high-leverage bullpen arms in recent years. But the pick doesn't look like a terrible one, given his emergence at the MLB level and his career still looks fairly promising looking forward.

6. RHP Cade Horton: 7th overall in 2022

The 2022 draft bared some nice pay-offs on the pitching side for the Cubs. They selected Cade Horton out of Oklahoma with the seventh overall pick, which was controversial at the time because of his limited work in college and a small sample of success in the College World Series.

But Horton stormed through the Minors in 2023, with a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts with 117 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings pitched. He was promoted to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs in 2024 and looked destined for a Major League call-up before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury.

Horton still has a lot to prove, especially when it comes to staying healthy for a full season. But he is still just 23 years old and currently ranked the 42nd-best prospect in baseball (third in the Cubs system) according to MLB Pipeline. His ceiling is incredibly high and he may end up being a cog in the starting rotation one day.

5. 3B Cam Smith: 14th overall in 2024

Former Florida State slugger Cam Smith was drafted less than six months ago, and his mark has already been felt in Chicago and the larger baseball world for that matter. After his 14th overall selection, Smith immediately went on a tear with the Low-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans. Smith's hot streak featured the 21-year-old homering in six straight games and earning a promotion after just 15 professional games.

It was a similar story with the South Bend Cubs, and Smith was with the Double-A squad by the end of the season. Given the Cubs' need at third base, many fans were hoping Smith would continue his herculean rise through the system and emerge as a young star in the Majors. But those hopes were dashed after the Kyle Tucker trade.

Smith was the main piece in the deal alongside Isaac Paredes, effectively gutting the Cubs' third base depth. Smith's departure was definitely disappointing, but it's important to keep in mind that he only has 134 professional plate appearances to his name. Whether it's in Double-A, Triple-A or in MLB, his stats will come back down to Earth at some point.

The main point here is that the Cubs have become much better at hitting on their draft picks in recent years, and Smith is a testament to that. Although he won't be a factor for the Cubs anymore, the fact that a team like the Astros was willing to make him a main component in a deal that saw them ship their best player to Chicago says a lot. Even if Smith doesn't pan out with Houston, the Cubs nailed it with this pick.

4. LHP Jordan Wicks: 21st overall in 2021

Jordan Wicks is one of the best examples of the Cubs' pitching infrastructure turning a corner in the 2020s. After his first-round selection in 2021, Wicks mounted a steady climb through the Minor Leagues with a 3.91 ERA over 55 starts across all levels.

At 25 years old, Wicks has 17 big-league starts under his belt, with a 5.02 ERA across 80 2/3 innings. The numbers don't look great on paper, but some context is needed. Wicks' 2023 numbers are inflated because of an outing where he gave up six earned runs and only lasted two innings. If you take that outing away, Wicks' ERA in 2023 comes down to a much more respectable 3.54.

The 2024 campaign was also mired by a forearm issue and a lingering oblique injury that Wicks pitched with for much of the season. His numbers aside, there is still a lot of confidence in the young southpaw's abilities and he is viewed as a quality starting rotation depth heading into the 2025 season. After appearing to cut some weight in the offseason, it looks like Wicks' best days on the mound are ahead of him.

3. IF Matt Shaw: 13th overall in 2023

An infielder by trade, Matt Shaw is the Cubs' most anticipated prospect since Pete Crow-Armstrong. The 22-year-old has amassed 159 minor league games so far and reached the Triple-A Iowa Cubs. He is a natural shortstop with above-average speed (46 stolen bases), decent power (29 home runs) and plate discipline (.384 OBP). The young infielder has also played himself into the Opening Day roster conversation, making him an extremely valuable draft choice despite not even making his MLB debut yet.

It took less than two years for Shaw to reach the top of the Cubs prospect list and Hoyer said he will get a long look at third base this Spring Training. Drafting Shaw also gave the Cubs the flexibility to make the Tucker trade. Moving Paredes and Smith was a gamble and it says a lot about how the organization sees Shaw's abilities that he is probably the guy for third base right now.

We haven't seen what Shaw can do in the Majors yet, but he's been able to excel with every challenge thrown at him so far. If he lives up to the hype in MLB, this draft pick will look like even more of a home run in the future.

2. 2B Nico Hoerner: 24th overall in 2018

Nico Hoerner did not take long to start making an impact on the major league roster. After being taken as the 24th overall selection in 2018, and just 89 minor league games played, he was called up to the Majors in Sept. 2019 and never looked back. Hoerner's first couple of seasons were rough, as he struggled on offense in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and went down with an oblique injury in 2021. The latter kept him sidelined for much of the year and he only turned in 170 plate appearances.

But from 2022 on, Hoerner has been able to stay healthy for the most part, and he has established himself as a mainstay in Chicago's lineup. He can play Gold Glove-level defense at both second base and shortstop, swipe a lot of bags and hit for contact better than most (career .278 hitter). Hoerner also strikes out less than the vast majority of hitters in the league, posting a 10.3 K% in 2024 (99th percentile according to Baseball Savant).

Since others on the team like Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have no trade clauses on their contract, Hoerner has been the subject of a lot of trade rumors this offseason. Hopefully, Chicago retains his talents for the remaining two years of his deal because he is a guy who can do a lot of things at a very high level and it's fun watching him do them.

1. OF Ian Happ: 9th overall in 2015

It's hard to believe Ian Happ wasn't part of the World Series team, but he didn't make his MLB debut until 2017. It looked like he would be a slugging presence for years to come after mashing 24 home runs in his initial campaign (in just 115 games), but things didn't quite work out that way. It was a bit of a rocky road for Happ to find his footing in the Majors after a sophomore slump in 2018 and it was hard for him to warrant playing time amidst offensive struggles.

But the post-pandemic years have been kind to Happ. He has established himself as the everyday left-fielder, where he has taken home three straight Gold Glove Awards since 2022. He isn't the prolific slugger some thought he could be, but he routinely posts 20-25 home runs with an OPS above .750. He is just a solid all-around player who provides good defense, runs well and takes professional at-bats.

Happ has also emerged as a leader in the clubhouse, especially after the World Series core was traded in 2021. For years, he served as the team's player's union representative, hosts his own podcast and has embraced the Cubs fanbase in many ways.

By the end of his current contract, Happ will have spent a decade in a Cubs uniform, making him the most valuable first-round selection on this list.