Projecting Shota Imanaga's role on 2026 Cubs roster once Justin Steele returns

Shota Imanaga's fall from grace (at least in the eyes of Chicago Cubs fans) has been a sight to behold. A Cy Young contender two years ago, the Japanese southpaw became a mobile Home Run Derby down the stretch last year, falling out of favor with Craig Counsell.

That led to a carousel of option-related decisions by both him and the team, though things came to an abrupt halt when Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer. He got penciled into the middle of the rotation as a bounce-back candidate, but his first start of the season left quite a bit to be desired.

Though he'll get at least a few more turns through the rotation as the Cubs navigate the early part of their schedule, there's a looming sense that he's on thin ice, especially knowing that Justin Steele will return to the fold eventually.

So, when that happens, what will become of Imanaga? Is he destined for a low-leverage bullpen role, or can he turn this sinking ship around?

Shota Imanaga's old form is all that can save him from looming fate with the Cubs

We know what Imanaga can do at his peak. He finished in the top five of Cy Young and Rookie of the Year voting in 2024, and generally looked like the same dominant pitcher through the first half of 2025.

Then, the train suddenly derailed, and he never got it back on the tracks. Over his final nine starts of the regular season, Imanaga allowed at least one home run in every appearance, including multi-homer efforts in five of his final six starts. That trend continued into the playoffs, as the lefty surrendered three home runs in just 6 2/3 frames, including two in less than three innings against the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS.

The last update we received on Steele suggested he'd be back sometime around late May, assuming he suffers no setbacks during his rehab process. That gives Imanaga about two months to put his recent history behind him and get back to his 2024 self.

The early returns this season did offer glimmers of hope — he struck out seven batters in five innings, thanks to chase and whiff rates that both hovered near 40%. That'll play, especially if his increased fastball velocity sticks around for the full season.

But if that velocity sinks again, or if his shocking lack of command becomes a running theme, or if batters continue to barrel up every mistake, Imanaga isn't long for the starting five. The idea of a six-man rotation has been floated, but the Cubs have, to this point, rejected the notion.

Perhaps Imanaga can force them to reconsider, or maybe an injury will sort this out before Steele returns. There's no doubt that the former's maximum value to the team would be found in the rotation.

But Steele will displace the weakest link of the group, and right now that's Imanaga. Unless he can earn back a lot of goodwill in a short amount of time, the Cubs may want to start preparing a bulk reliever spot in their bullpen.