Projecting Seiya Suzuki's next contract if Cubs aren't ready to show him the door

Pretty much all season long, the media has tried to pit Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki against each other. Not in a literal sense, of course, but rather framing it as "keep one or the other" conundrum, seeing as both age-32 corner outfielders are pending free agents at the end of the 2026 season.

I firmly believe that it's viable to retain both outfielders, especially after the Chicago Cubs dumped Owen Caissie (their corner outfield succession plan) in the Edward Cabrera trade last winter. Of course, given that there's a lockout coming in the next few months, it's entirely possible that it no longer becomes financially sensible to keep both. But viability and sensibility are not the same thing.

Regardless of where you fall in that conversation, however, one thing should be eminently clear to every Cubs fan who has been watching this team over the past half-decade: Suzuki is far too valuable to let him walk away for nothing. So, the question is: What will he cost to keep?

Seiya Suzuki has put himself in elite outfield company recently, which will bode well for his wallet

The easiest way to get some comparisons for Suzuki's next contract is to look at historical precedent. In other words, let's look at similar players in recent memory and check out the contracts they got.

We'll take his sample from 2023-26 as our prime window; I'm leaving out his rookie season in 2022 due to injury and the fact that he was transitioning from Japan to the United States while trying to adjust to Major League Baseball. In these past four years, he's hit .272/.353/.485 with a 131 wRC+, good for 13.3 fWAR.

Since 2023, there have been just 11 outfielders who have managed to accrue more fWAR, and that list includes Pete Crow-Armstrong and Mookie Betts, the latter of whom is now a full-time shortstop. Everyone else above him is just a who's who of the best players in baseball, from Aaron Judge to Juan Soto to old friend Kyle Tucker.

Suzuki isn't going to match any of the contracts they received (in fact, Tucker's poorly aging deal might have hurt the market for near-elite outfielders), but that should give you an idea of the kind of company he's been keeping. Perhaps the closest comparison to draw in terms of age and value comes via another old friend, Cody Bellinger, who inked a five-year, $162.5 million contract to stay with the Yankees prior to the 2026 season.

Bellinger is, at least historically, a better (and more versatile) defender than Suzuki, though the Cubs' right fielder has closed that gap considerably this year. Plus, he's easily outpacing Bellinger at the plate over the past few years, as the Yankees' star has a 121 wRC+ since 2021.

Considering the Cubs' lack of options to replace both Happ and Suzuki right now -- the best internal bets are Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcántara, neither of whom has proven capable of being able to handle full-time starting duties in the majors -- it's safe to say they're also a little desperate. I don't think they'd be willing to throw the Bellinger contract at Suzuki (especially with the lockout looming), but that $150 million barrier is probably a lot more reasonable than most fans realize.

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