Predicting potential postseason scenarios as Cubs' NL Central hopes start to fade

Having lost five games to the Milwaukee Brewers just this week, the Chicago Cubs’ divisional aspirations are unofficially on life support. The relevant question for the moment is, ‘Will they hang on in the wild card race?

As they disembark in Toronto for a three-game series that begins Tuesday against the AL East leaders, the Cubs lead that race, but only by a game and a half over San Diego. The Mets hold the third spot, but they are on an even worse run than the Cubs.

Projecting what’s most likely to happen based on each team’s momentum since the All-Star break, there’s good news for Cubs fans…sort of. They are likely to hang on to a wild card berth. No, things haven’t gotten so bad that they could miss out on October entirely, although it sure seems like it.

What is considerably less certain is whether they can hang on to that top wild card spot and the home first-round series that goes with it.  Increasingly likely is the prospect of being overtaken by the NL West runner-up, an event that would set up a first-round playoff series on the West Coast rather than at Wrigley.

And by the way, there’s also no certainty that the Cubs’ opponent in that first-round series would be the San Diego Padres. As unlikely as it has seemed since the Dodgers began collecting legends, the Padres are on a pace to overtake Los Angeles in the NL West race.

Despite being a mediocre 10-11 since the break, the Cubs can thank two things for their relatively secure position. First, the New York Mets are playing even worse and losing altitude in the standings even faster than the Cubs.

And second, the Cincinnati Reds, who have begun performing like a postseason club, appear to have too much ground to make up to overtake the Cubs.

Baseball Reference, by the way, fully agrees with that judgment. That site still gives the Cubs a 99.1 percent chance of playing postseason ball even in the wake of recent series losses to the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals. They expect the Cubs to play 25-20 ball the rest of the way, finishing with 92 wins. While that would seem a bit optimistic based on recent trends, it would hold on to the first wild card spot.

For the moment, the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Dodgers hold divisional leads. The Cubs have the first wild card followed by the Padres and Mets.

Projecting 2025 MLB standings based on each team's second-half play

But let’s perform a little exercise by way of speculating how things all play out over the final 45 or thereabouts games. Presume that each NL post-season contender plays those final 45 or so games at the same winning percentage they have established in the three and one-half weeks since the break. What do the final standings look like under that scenario?

They are, it turns out, different in some respects from the Baseball-Reference model.

Under that scenario, the Cubs: 10-11 (.476) since the break – would go only 21-24 the rest of the way, limping home at 88-74.  The Brewers, flying along at 17-4 since the Midsummer Classic, would disappear over the horizon on the way to running up 109 wins. The latter almost certainly won’t happen, by the way, but you get the point.

What of the Cubs’ wild card challengers? The most interesting aspect of that question is unfolding out west, where the Padres have taken to playing .636 ball since the break. Keep that up, and they’ll finish with 94 wins.

That would not only eclipse the Cubs, it would also overtake the Dodgers for the divisional title since LA – like the Cubs – is only 10-11 since the break. That pace would leave them at 89-73, one game better than the Cubs but five behind the Padres.

The Mets are in even worse shape than the Cubs. They have lost 13 of 21 since the break, a mere .381 winning percentage. If that course isn’t reversed, the Mets would finish below .500 at 79-83 and out of the playoff picture entirely.

They would be overtaken by the Reds, who are 12-10 since the break. Cincinnati is currently a game and a half behind the Mets but projects to finish 85-77. That would be three games behind the Cubs but solidly in the third wild card spot.

Put it all together and this becomes the NL playoff scenario by season’s end.

• Byes: Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies
• Series 1: Cubs (88-74) at Los Angeles Dodgers (89-73). Winner to face the Brewers.
• Series 2: Cincinnati Reds (85-77) at San Diego Padres (94-68). Winner to face the Phillies.