What an all homegrown Cubs pitching staff could look like

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Back in 2019, The Chicago Cubs were having a bit of an existential crisis. President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein was on his way out, and his team was struggling mightily to reach the heights they did in 2016. After years of an overall strategy focused on developing position players while supplementing their roster with free-agent pitching signings, the Cubs decided to make a change. While this strategy worked for a time and nabbed the team four straight playoff appearances, it proved to not be sustainable for long-term success. Hence, the organization-wide overhaul which turned the focus into drafting, acquiring, and developing pitching.

With the hiring of guys like Craig Breslow, who is currently one of Jed Hoyer's assistant General Managers, this transition has been successful from the top down. Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Javier Assad are all excellent examples of how this pitching focus is already impacting the big league roster. With 1-2 more years of development, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see nearly the entire pitching staff at Wrigley Field comprised of home-grown guys, which Jed Hoyer has called a goal. Here is what that Cubs pitching staff could look like in one or two years.

The Rotation

Justin Steele has already emerged as a trusted big-league starting pitcher, and he is looking to take another big step this year. At just 27 years old and under club control until 2028, Steele will be a huge part of this team moving forward. Behind him is a wealth of starting pitching depth that stretches all the down to the rookie ball level after the 2022 draft saw the Cubs take Cade Horton and Jackson Ferris. Those two are currently ranked by MLB as the Cubs No. 4 and No. 9 prospects respectively, pretty good for guys who haven't even made their professional debut yet.

With all that depth, The Cubs likely would not elect to resign guys like Marcus Stroman, who has an opt-out clause after 2023, or Kyle Hendricks, who has a club option for 2024. Instead, they can fill those rotation spots with in-house options like Caleb Killian, Javier Assad, or Jordan Wicks.

Here is what the Cubs rotation could look like in 1-2 years:

1. Jameson Taillon

2. Hayden Wesneski

3. Justin Steele

4. Javier Assad

5. Jordan Wicks

Other options: Caleb Killian and Keegan Thompson

Since Taillon signed a 4-year deal, he will be around for a while, but I don't see the Cubs perusing the talents of Stroman or Hendricks any further. In addition to being convenient to fill your rotation with home-grown guys, it is extremely cost-effective. All the money saved from these cheap rookie contracts will allow the Cubs to spend big on position players or a top-of-the-rotation ace like Aaron Nola or Julio Urias. Not to mention the guys who don't earn a job in the rotation can slot nicely into the bullpen.

The Bullpen

The rotation isn't the only area seeing the fruits of the Cubs' pitching overhaul, as the bullpen is already sprinkled with homegrown guys and more are coming. Last year saw the debut of former outfielder turned lefty slider specialist Brandon Hughes, and in 57 games, Hughes excelled with a 3.12 ERA while racking up 68 strikeouts. As the only lefty projected to be in the bullpen, Hughes will play a huge role in the pen in 2023. Former starter Adbert Alzolay will likely be a candidate to close ballgames with his superb swing-and-miss stuff. Javier Assad and Keegan Thompson will be long-relief/swingman options and will start games should injuries hit the rotation. The rest is currently filled with free-agent signings like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer, but there are legitimate lockdown arms in the pipeline.

Jerimiah Estrada will compete for a bullpen job this spring training, and he already made his major league debut last season where he showcased his blistering fastball. No. 8 prospect Ben Brown will likely spend most of his time in Triple-A this season, and his 6'6 frame coupled with a deadly fastball-slider combo projects to be a set-up man or closer at the big-league level. Brown was added to the 40-man-roster alongside Ryan Jensen to protect them from the Rule-5 Draft, and he is making strides this Spring Training as well.

Another left-handed option could be DJ Herz, who ranks 17th in the system and made his way to the Tennessee Smokies last year. Finally, Daniel Palencia (No. 14) boasts possibly the best fastball in the entire organization, giving him a massive ceiling as he continues making his way through the system after coming aboard in the Andrew Chafin deal.

Projected bullpen in 1-2 years:

Closer: Ben Brown/ Daniel Palencia

Set Up: Adbert Alzolay, Jerimiah Estrada, Ryan Jensen

Lefties: DJ Herz, Brandon Hughes

Long Relief: Keegan Thompson, Caleb Killian

Other options: Riley Thompson, Ben Leeper, Brendon Little, Brailyn Marquez

Next. Kris Bryant wishing nothing but success for the Chicago Cubs. dark

Again, saving money on a homegrown bullpen gives you the flexibility to spend big on the offensive side. And it's not like relief pitchers fetch a huge price, to begin with, aside from top-of-the-line closers. And when guys like that hit free agency, the Cubs will be able to float their competitive contract offers. All in all, this strategy of developing pitching seems to be the way to sustain success, as the Dodgers, Guardians, and Rays implement similar strategies with promising results. As time goes by, the Cubs get a little closer to their pitching prospects getting their big league opportunity.

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