Understanding why the Chicago Cubs will be strong contenders in 2024

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After 18 games into the season, the Cubs sit at a respectable 11-7 record. With both the offense and pitching firing on all cylinders, Chicago has placed itself in the middle of the conversation of teams you certainly can't rule out from competing for a playoff spot this year. As good as the Cubs have looked thus far on paper, there's reason to believe that 2023 will only be the beginning. We know the Cubs have always envisioned 2024 as the year to contend, but the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of losing seasons is getting brighter and brighter.

Fast forwarding to 2024, we have three main reasons why the Cubs will strongly compete next season. Let's review them now, starting with where things will sit for the front office financially.

Understanding why the Cubs will contend in 2024 - Current payroll

First, same as this past winter, the Chicago Cubs will have the financial flexibility to spend again. Taking a look at pending Cubs free agents, let's break down what to come off the books after the 2023 season concludes:

Marcus Stroman - $23.6M (Player option)
Cody Bellinger - $17.5M (Mutual option)
Kyle Hendricks - 13.875M (Club option)
Trey Mancini - $7M (player option)
Yan Gomes - $6.5M (club option)
Michael Fulmer $4.0M (UFA)
Tucker Barnhart $3.25M (Player option)
Brad Boxberger $2.8M (Mutual option)
Eric Hosmer $720K (UFA)

First, remember that Jason Heyward's $22.0M is coming off the books this winter. Starting at the top of this player list, unless the Cubs offer Marcus Stroman a healthy extension as they did for Ian Happ, he is as good as gone this winter, too, if he has another good year. Presumably, the same for Cody Bellinger, who will be one of the most sought-after bats on the market if he has a fantastic year.

Adding those three players up right there, along with Kyle Hendricks, who seems unlikely to have his option picked up at this point, we're already talking about a total of $77M coming off the books this winter. That's before any remaining decisions are made that could boost that total. Another spending spree is undoubtedly in the works.

Understanding why the Cubs will contend in 2024 - Prospect trade packages

After the Cubs locked up Ian Happ for three more years, it didn't just give the Cubs another piece to their core that is sticking around; it opened the floodgates for potential trades moving forward. Revisiting the current Cubs Top 30 prospect list, It's now eye-opening that five of the Cubs' top eight hitters are outfielders. With only Center Field vacant moving forward (assuming Bellinger doesn't stick around), doing the math becomes relatively easy when you think about what that means.

The Cubs need an everyday center fielder once Bellinger is gone, followed by one more of those top five outfielders to pan out, and they have three top prospects they can quickly flip to help the big league team address its biggest needs. Of course, the Jed Hoyer Regime probably will only deplete its newly put-together farm system overnight; there is still no reason to believe he will block his most valuable players if they can contribute at the major league level. At least one or two should be moved at some point. For example, putting a package together that consists of Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis as a starting point will get teams listening.

Understanding why the Cubs will contend in 2024 - 2024 MLB free agency

As mentioned earlier, the spending will continue with the Cubs getting closer to a serious competitive run. They will still have enough flexibility to pick up another bat or pitcher if they pull off an extension of Stroman. It is a matter of having the money to spend, but also, who they could spend it on. As it happens, quite a few players will be there for the Cubs to fortify the team further. Looking at the 2024 free agents, the class is loaded, particularly with pitchers this coming winter:

Shohei Ohtani
Max Scherzer (Player option)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Julio Urias
Clayton Kershaw
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Martin Perez
Lance Lynn (Club option)
Aaron Nola
Lucas Giolito
Jordan Montgomery
Blake Snell
Sonny Gray

These are some of the names that stick out the most in next winter's upcoming free agency class regarding starting pitching. Whether or not all of these names will still be available at that point remains to be seen, but regardless, the Cubs should have no reason why they can't add another towards-the-front-end of the rotation type of starter this winter. As for bats, let's take a look at the most notable from the list here:

Joc Pederson
Michael Conforto (Player option)
Teoscar Hernandez
Matt Chapman
Hunter Renfroe
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
J.D. Martinez
Josh Bell (Player option)
CJ Cron

We can more than likely rule out any outfielder or first baseman, such as Bell or Cron. That leaves Matt Chapman on the list, which only makes sense if the Cubs decide to permanently remove Patrick Wisdom from 3B and shift him to platoon at first base with what we hope will be Matt Mervis or have him DH altogether. With Happ and Suzuki locked up patrolling the corner outfield spots, it will be hard for the Cubs to sign an outfielder to whom they can only guarantee everyday playing time if the front office plans never to have one of their top outfield prospects play every day.

Nevertheless, it's an excellent problem for the Cubs to have. If you're in the front office, it makes more sense to trade for a bat that fills your most significant position of need while signing a free-agent pitcher to man the front of the rotation. They have every possibility to build a super team moving forward.

Next. 3 reasons the Cubs should not pick up Madison Bumgarner. dark

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