This big-time free agent could save or sink the Cubs, depending on how he ages

Everything - and I mean everything - hinges on whether or not Cody Bellinger opts out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs this winter. If he doesn't Jed Hoyer will have to re-define 'creative' to add the desperately needed power bat to this lineup heading into 2025.

A trade of Nico Hoerner, at least at face value, looks like the easiest way to clear a spot, which could lead to Michael Busch sliding over to second next spring and opening up first base for a big bat. The biggest available in free agency at the position? Longtime New York Mets staple Pete Alonso, who is battling through a tough walk year before testing the open market this offseason.

Even in the worst year of his career, Alonso has 32 home runs, 81 RBI and a .468 slugging percentage - all of which would rank among the high-water marks for Cubs players this year. He eclipsed 40 homers in 2022 and 2023 - something no one has done on the North Side since Derrek Lee in 2005.

Pete Alonso could offer the Cubs elite power production in 2025

That power makes him an enticing free-agent target. Assuming Bellinger opts out and the fit is there, it'll come down to how many years and dollars it takes to lure Alonso away from Queens, where he's spent his entire career since being drafted in the second round out of the University of Florida back in 2016.

If it's four years or less, I think the Cubs will be all-in on Alonso; I don't see Hoyer locking himself into Alonso on the wrong side of 35 (he turns 30 in December). Dollars also matter, although if Bellinger leaves, Chicago will have around $90 million coming off the books - so it becomes more about spreading those dollars around to address the numerous needs facing the team.

Given his relative 'down' year, Alonso comes with risk. After all, we've seen more than a few corner infielders age poorly as they head deeper into their 30s and there's no guarantee Alonso will buck that trend. But this team - and the Cubs' president of baseball operations, in particular - are in a tough spot after falling short of expectations this season.

The Cubs need to win in 2025 if Hoyer wants to save his job and, frankly, it's hard to see them doing so without adding an impact power bat. There are other options out there, but none (this side of Juan Soto) who have the slugging ceiling of the Mets' four-time All-Star first baseman.