The Cubs could push all-in on their rotation with this Atlanta Braves All-Star

If there's one positive takeaway to observe in the Chicago Cubs' otherwise disappointing 2024 season, it's that the rotation was better than expected. Despite key injuries throughout the season and lost development from Ben Brown and Cade Horton, the team's 3.82 ERA for starters ranked seventh best in the majors. With Kyle Hendricks, easily the worst of the bunch with a 6.25 ERA, departing in free agency, there's a huge opportunity to reinforce the group and create a three-headed monster with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga.

Corbin Burnes would be the ideal addition coming off another stellar year (3.06 ERA, 3.63 FIP), albeit in Baltimore instead of Milwaukee. Despite Bruce Levine's notion that the ace will be a top target for the Cubs, however, this front office has done nothing to indicate that they'd change their spending strategy and commit well over $200 million over what could be a seven to eight-year deal for a 30-year-old pitcher. That doesn't mean they couldn't still land an ace, however.

This offseason is packed with interesting starting pitching options including high-upside bounceback candidates like Walker Buehler who resemble the exact type of reclamation free agents Jed Hoyer likes the most. However, if they want to go bigger while remaining in their price range, the best option on the market would undoubtedly be Atlanta Braves All-Star Max Fried.

Fried boasts a career 3.11 ERA, though the shortened 2020 season marked his breakout campaign when he posted a 2.25 ERA and a 3.10 FIP en route to finishing fifth in Cy Young voting. His best season came in 2022 where he earned his first All-Star nod with a 2.48 ERA and 2.70 FIP and ended as the runner-up for the pitching award behind only a monster season from Marlins ace Sandy Alcántara. 2024 sent him back to the Midsummer Classic, though he hasn't been quite as dominant with a still-strong 3.49 ERA and 3.48 FIP.

Even in what's been a down year by his standards, Fried is still among the elite in baseball at limiting hard contact and inducing groundballs. He ranks in the 95th percentile with an average exit velocity of only 86.3 mph and has similarly strong barrel rates (5.1%) and hard-hit rates (34.5%). For a Cubs team that boasts Gold Glove middle infielders Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner and a rapidly improving defender in Michael Busch, he'd make a sensible addition, even if this team could use more high-strikeout arms.

Moreover, the price tag for his services is likely doable. MLB Trade Rumors recently estimated he could shoot for something in the realm of Patrick Corbin ($140 million) and Carlos Rodon ($162 million). Between arm health concerns and his late-season struggles in Atlanta, there's reason to believe he could potentially be available for even lower than that. The last big starter contract the Cubs gave out was Yu Darvish's six-year, $126 million deal in 2018, but Fried gives enough reason to consider going back to those lengths, even if it'll cost a draft pick due to the qualifying offer.

Max Fried wouldn't come to the Cubs without warts

While Fried would be a strong option for the Cubs, he's not quite a perfect one. Those aforementioned forearm issues have now plagued him for two years, with a forearm strain limiting him to only 14 starts in 2023 and left forearm neuritis briefly affecting him again this year. He'll also be entering his age-31 season with metrics that appear to be declining from his best seasons and a walk rate that rose back to 3.04 walks per nine innings.

This year proved that the Cubs can't take their starting pitching depth for granted. Everyone from Steele to Hendricks, Brown, Horton, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski missed time with injuries in 2024. Fried would add another proven arm to the bunch for the foreseeable future to guard against regression and avoid overreliance on younger pitchers to take big steps forward.