The Chicago Cubs can do something in the 2025 MLB Draft that the White Sox can't

The Major League Baseball Draft used to be easy. The team with the worst record got the first overall pick; the team that won the World Series got the 30th overall pick and everyone else fell into order based on their record between them.

That’s not the case anymore.

Major League Baseball began a lottery system a few years ago and that system has yet to lead to the worst team getting the number one overall pick since it’s been instituted. That is bad news for teams that are tanking, like the cross-town Chicago White Sox, but potentially really good news for a Chicago Cubs team that may barely miss out on a playoff berth.

How does the lottery work?

There are three key things to know when looking at the lottery:

1. The 18 teams that miss the playoffs are put into a weighted lottery with the potential to earn one of the top six picks in the draft. The odds range from 22.45% for the two worst teams to 0.31% for the 18th-place team (currently the Atlanta Braves).

2. Once the top six picks are determined using the lottery, the remaining picks from 7 to 18 are determined based on record. So for example, if the Colorado Rockies somehow managed to get left out of the top six picks in the lottery despite having the worst (eligible) record, they would be given the 7th overall pick.

3. The only exception to the aforementioned rules is that your team can be excluded from the lottery for prolonged poor play and instead the earliest they can draft is 10th to avoid tanking:

a. If your team is considered a “payer,” meaning it pays more into MLB’s revenue sharing system than it receives back (primarily larger-market teams like the Chicago Cubs or White Sox), then it is ineligible to pick in the lottery in consecutive years.

b. If your team is considered a “receiver,” meaning it receives more from MLB’s revenue sharing system than it paid in (primarily smaller market teams like the Oakland A’s), then it is ineligible to pick in the lottery in three consecutive seasons.

Are there any teams being excluded from the lottery this season?

Yes. The Chicago White Sox have been a truly abysmal and offensive baseball team to watch this season. They’re 33-112 at the time of writing, which is 21.5 games worse than the Colorado Rockies who have the second worst record in baseball. To put that into perspective, they are further back from the Rockies than the Rockies are from the Chicago Cubs.

However, neither the White Sox nor the Oakland A’s will be picking in the lottery this season and will instead be drafting (at best) at 10th and 11th due to having had selections in the lottery last season for the White Sox and the last two seasons for the A’s.

What does this mean for the Chicago Cubs?

The Cubs are most likely going to select 17th in next year’s MLB Draft.

They have a 0.49% shot at the number one pick and while they do have a chance to have their ping pong ball pulled as one of the top six teams (especially with the White Sox and A’s removed from the equation), there are other teams with significantly higher odds to end up in the top six than the Cubs.

Remember, the lottery only applies to the top six teams, so if the Cubs don’t end up picking there, they’ll pick based on their final record which could conceivably be as high as 12th or as low as 30th if we see an otherworldly and memorable run through October.

When will we know which pick the Cubs have?

If it’s anything like last year, the Draft Lottery will occur in early December and the prognosticating can begin.