Ranking the best Chicago Cubs pitching prospects halfway through the season

Cubs Triple-A Pitcher of the First Half: RHP Ben Brown (23 Years Old)

12 G, 50 IP, 5.76 ERA, 74 K, 1.58 WHIP, .238 BAA

Ben Brown seems to have come back down to earth recently after a red hot April and a solid May. Brown was never a top-of-the-organization prospect when he was with the Phillies and he was traded for a half-season of a relief pitcher in his late 30s. He may not be the ace that we all hoped for when we saw the video game numbers he put up in Tennessee, but he’s still had a heck of a season so far.

As I alluded to, he pitched four games in Tennessee spanning 20 innings. In those 20 innings, he allowed one earned run and struck out 30 as he held opponents to a .186 batting average and only walked six hitters. 

That last number is going to be the one to keep an eye on as we go deeper into the season. When he arrived in Iowa in May he was almost equally dominant aside from one exceptionally bad start when he allowed seven runs. Across his other four May starts he allowed just three earned runs and it seemed like the Cubs had a real beast on their hands, even if he did walk twice as many batters in May as he did in April.

The wheels slowly started falling off in June. He had two different starts where he allowed six runs and only one scoreless outing. Even though he pitched nearly five fewer innings in June he saw his walks increase again to 16 in just 19.2 innings. That number hasn’t improved in his two July starts either. In just 6.1 innings in July, he’s given up six walks.

To say that Brown is the pitcher that he was in April would be inaccurate and unfair. To say that he’s the pitcher that he’s been in June and July so far would be equally inaccurate and unfair. The answer, as is almost always the case, is somewhere in the middle and if that’s the case with Brown’s trajectory then the Cubs still have a very usable piece that could be a difference-maker out of the bullpen immediately or a piece of the rotation as soon as the trade deadline passes or the next injury hits. 

I would have loved it if Brown would have forced his way to the majors and been an instant star, but development isn’t a straight line and there’s still every possibility that he could be a star eventually. 

Cubs Double-A Pitcher of the First Half: LHP Jordan Wicks (23 Years Old)

13 G, 58.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 69 K, 1.17 WHIP, .227 BAA

Wicks continues the trend of every pitcher on this list earning a promotion as he pitched his last two games with the AAA Iowa Cubs. He avoided the massive culture shift from earlier this season when the Cubs were seemingly attempting to solve their major league bullpen problems by fast-tracking some of their starting pitching prospects into bullpen roles, the fruits of which can be seen as Daniel Palencia is now in the major league pen. 

The way he avoided that was by being exceptional all season. This should come as no surprise but in the two games he’s played since getting the call to Iowa he hasn’t been as impressive. His strikeout numbers are down, and his walks are up which has led to an increase in the runs he’s allowed and a decrease in the distance he’s been able to go in games.

However, if you look at the larger sample size of the 13 games he played in Tennessee you’ll see a player that has absolutely earned the promotion and a player that Cubs fans can dream of a little bit in hopes that they will have a deep stable of arms to pull from next season on their way to the playoffs.

Wicks isn’t the power pitcher that Brown or even the other two guys on this list are. He gets strikeouts, but he relies on soft contact in a way that’s more similar to a Justin Steele/Drew Smyly than Marcus Stroman. 

There is room for both of those guys on a major league staff, and it doesn’t make a ton of sense to spend as much money and resources on defense as the Cubs have if they intend to only develop pitchers that strike guys out. If you’re going to spend those resources on defense then you want to have some pitchers that allow hitters to put the ball in play and let your defense do the work.

Wicks doesn’t look like an ace. He doesn’t look like the most overpowering pitcher in the system. That being said, Justin Steele never looked like that either and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the National League for over a year now. There is a world where Wicks is pitching for the Cubs by the end of this season (albeit those odds are inversely related to the Cubs' playoff odds) but a more realistic option is for him to find his way into the rotation sometime next season depending on what the trade deadline and free agency look like for the Cubs this offseason. 

Cubs Low-A Pitcher of the First Half: Michael Arias RHP (21 Years Old)

11 G, 42.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 64 K, 1.16 WHIP, .164 BAA

Michael Arias has been a tremendous surprise this year. Since getting the call up to High A South Bend, he’s been less dominant in his two starts there but his time in Myrtle Beach was great. A quick glance at the stats above tell you a lot of what you need to know. 

He was averaging nearly two strikeouts per inning which shows impressive stuff, but he also had a 1.16 WHIP which means he was allowing more than one baserunner per inning. That is a solid number, but when you look at the batting average against him being a .164 it begs the question: how are these guys getting on base against him?

It turns out that when you’re a newly converted shortstop, hitting the strike zone can be exceptionally difficult. That being said, Michael Arias is found money. Coming into the season he wasn’t on any top prospect lists and he wasn’t someone anyone outside of the Cubs organization (or likely even within the organization) was expecting to rely on in any meaningful way.

Now, I’m not making the argument that Arias is going to be a part of the Cubs rotation next year. I’m not even making the claim that he’ll make the Cubs rotation ever. 

Baseball is a lot like one of those super annoying mobile games where there are different kinds of currency and some of them are more valuable than others but they all have their place. It’s valuable to a team on the rise to have young pre-arbitration players on their major league roster, and it’s valuable for a team to have prospects that are close to the majors that they can call up and have them help in times of need. 

However, another form of currency is prospect currency. Whether Arias ever wears a Cubs uniform or not is irrelevant. What the organization has managed to do is to turn a player that was cast off by the Blue Jays into a player that has value to the Cubs by having value to other teams as well and he could be a great trade chip at the deadline this year or next if Chicago finds itself in need of a spending spree.

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