Ranking 8 Cubs pending free agents by likelihood of them re-signing

No matter what the next week holds for the Chicago Cubs, there's no doubt the future is once again bright on the North Side. This offseason will be a big one for Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins, as they look to go from fringe playoff hopefuls to legitimate contenders.

The Cubs front office will no doubt be active on both the trade market and in free agency, but there are some guys we've grown accustomed to seeing on the field this year who might run it back with the team in 2024. Here's our rankings of Cubs pending free agents, going from least likely to return to most likely.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #8 - Brad Boxberger

Brad Boxberger has been a major disappointment for the Cubs this year. Instead of teaming up with Michael Fulmer to give the team an experienced late inning tandem with a ton of experience, the veteran right-hander has missed most of the year due to injuries.

He made just 22 appearances in 2023, working to a 4.95 ERA and 5.31 FIP in 20 innings of work. Given the Cubs paid him just $2 million this year and he's on the back half of his 30s now, there's no chance the team picks up their half of a $5 million mutual option. They'll take the $800K buyout route and look elsewhere for bullpen help heading into 2024.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #6 - Jeimer Candelario

The fit is there, but given how relatively light this winter's free agent class is in terms of impact bats, it seems pretty likely the Cubs won't be Jeimer Candelario's only suitor in free agency.

The corner infielder had his full-circle moment when the Cubs re-acquired him at the trade deadline and after a hot start, his production tailed off - likely due to the back issue that put him on the IL until this week. He's been just about league average in terms of OPS+ (102), which is right in line with his career mark.

First and third base are big-time areas of need for Chicago - so whether it's Candelario or someone like Matt Chapman, who headlines this year's list of free agent third basemen - expect Hoyer and Hawkins to be focused on adding impact talent at the corners this winter.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #5 - Michael Fulmer

After a disastrous start to the year, Michael Fulmer largely leveled off and became a go-to guy for David Ross. His importance has been on full display with him sidelined, as without him or Adbert Alzolay, the Cubs have been desperately searching for answers in the late innings down the stretch.

He really found his groove when the calendar turned to June - and from June 3 to Aug. 6, he made 25 appearances, limiting opponents to a .170 batting average and a sub-.600 OPS, working to a 1.26 ERA. Of course, we can't look past the horrendous showings in April, May or August - but there's clearly something still left in the tank.

The former Rookie of the Year hasn't been spectacular, by any means, although you can clearly see he's put together some nice stretches at times. Chicago bet on him to be a big piece of the bullpen puzzle and that looks like it was an ill-advised plan. But bringing him back on a low-cost, one-year deal as bullpen depth doesn't hurt either side here.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #4 - Cody Bellinger

The man checking in at #4 on this list is the most important one the Cubs could bring back this offseason. His bounceback campaign exceeded any and all expectations around the game and, if not for missing a month early in the summer on the IL, he'd be getting some love as an MVP candidate.

Cody Bellinger has been a revelation for the Cubs in every way: on the bases, in the field (at multiple positions) and at the plate. He's got a shot at 30 doubles, 30 home runs, 20 steals and 100 RBI if he gets hot to close out the season - and even if he misses that mark, his OPS already marks his best single-season clip since he won NL MVP back in 2019.

But the competition for Bellinger is going to be intense. He's very young (doesn't even turn 29 until next July) and is capable of changing the game in ways few others can on a nightly basis. The big question mark, of course, is health - but he seems to have assuaged some of those concerns here in 2023. He needs to be the Cubs' top priority this winter, but they'll have to get uncomfortable if they want to keep him around long-term.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #3 - Marcus Stroman

All indications of late suggest Marcus Stroman is planning on opting into the final year of his deal with the Cubs - something that looked all but impossible just a few short months ago. However, injuries and ineffectiveness plagued the two-time All-Star in the second half and his value isn't near what it was heading into the All-Star Break.

Even with the downturn, Stroman has put together another solid campaign, posting a 3.52 FIP in 130+ innings of work. There's nothing wrong with that level of production when you factor in what he also brings to a clubhouse and the community. At his best, as we saw this year, he can go toe-to-toe with any pitcher in the league - and you hope that, fully healthy, we see more of that in 2024.

There's always a chance he tests free agency, but it seems like Stroman really enjoys being in Chicago (he was very, very vocal about this earlier in the season) and has experienced real success with the team and coaching staff before getting hurt.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #2 - Yan Gomes

Willson, who? Veteran backstop Yan Gomes has done it all this year, taking rookie catcher Miguel Amaya under his wing after the team designated Tucker Barnhart for assignment this summer and producing at the plate, especially in clutch spots.

With two outs and runners in scoring position, Gomes is batting north of .300. Late and close situations? Same story. He's not going to put up the same level of offensive numbers someone like Willson Contreras did, but he's far better defensively and brings a quite poise to each and every big moment.

The Cubs will, no doubt, pick up the team option on his deal and bring Gomes back for one more go-round, despite his turning 37 next July. He's done everything the team hoped for when they signed him, and then some - and he'll have a chance to keep mentoring Amaya and molding a young staff that should be loaded with intrigue next season.

Ranking Cubs free agents based on likelihood of re-signing: #1 - Kyle Hendricks

Just recently, we heard that the Cubs bringing back Kyle Hendricks was a 'foregone conclusion' given how the veteran has pitched since his return from 2022 shoulder surgery. Given his relationship with David Ross and the team's need of consistency and depth in the rotation, this is a slam dunk.

The last remaining member of Chicago's 2016 World Series championship team isn't what he was at his peak, but is still very capable of keeping opposing lineups off balance every five days. His WHIP and FIP are both right in line with his career marks this year and he's seemingly gotten past the home run woes that plagued him in 2021 and 2022.

Who knows if 2024 will be his last season on the North Side. He's spent his entire big league career with the Cubs and may be one of the rare birds that manages to stick with one club until he hangs up his spikes. One of the most underrated Cubs pitchers ever, though, will surely be back next year.