Ranking 5 internal candidates to replace Adbert Alzolay as the Cubs closer
With four blown saves in less than a month, a change is needed in the ninth-inning duties
One day after failing to preserve what should have been a Chicago Cubs win in the first game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Miami Marlins, Adbert Alzolay entered not in the ninth, as has been the case for the first three weeks, but in the eighth. He tossed a clean inning and that was that.
The problem is that clean innings haven't been a common occurrence for Alzolay in 2024, with four blown saves in the season's first month, prompting first-year Cubs manager Craig Counsell to remove him from the closer's role, at least for the time being.
“The title of closer is not an actual job,” Counsell said on Sunday. “It’s just to get three outs, generally, or to get four outs or to get the last outs of the game. In the long run, if we have to do that in a different way, we’ll do it in a different way. If we can get Adbert back to it, that would be great, too.”
So, if not Alzolay, who will get the ball in the ninth? An official replacement hasn't been named and maybe Counsell really will take it day-by-day. But there's a good chance someone settles into the role, at least on an interim basis. Let's take a look at 5 internal candidates - and rank them from least to most likely.
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5. Ben Brown has the stuff but is already filling a valuable role
I would love Ben Brown to be the guy slamming the door shut in the ninth but he's proven to be a badly-needed safety net for a Cubs starting rotation that is battling injury and ineffectiveness. Justin Steele threw live BP over the weekend at Wrigley, which is a promising sign as he works his way back from the hamstring injury he sustained on Opening Day, but, for now, the team is missing its ace.
Jameson Taillon just made his 2024 debut - and was brilliant - and his return forced Brown back into the bullpen. But after a fourth-straight ineffective Kyle Hendricks start, the big right-hander could soon find himself back in the rotation if Hendricks runs out of runway trying to sort out his mechanics.
Since getting rocked by the Rangers in his big league debut, Brown has emerged as a stabilizing presence for Counsell, both as a starter and reliever. There's no chance, as things currently stand, that Chicago can pull him from that swingman role and slot him into the ninth inning. The stuff isn't the issue - he's just doing too much good where he is to limit him to closing duties.
4. Hayden Wesneski also has the stuff but doesn't seem like a likely fit
Hayden Wesneski's stock has risen and fallen over the last few years with the Cubs and is currently high after he bailed the team out with a sleep-deprived, multi-inning relief performance in Arizona to close out the team's West Coast road trip.
The right-hander wasn't all that sharp this spring and was all over the place last year, swinging between the bullpen and starting rotation. He was markedly better as a reliever (3.57 ERA compared to a 5.51 mark as a starter) and it stands to reason his future is there, rather than the rotation. But given his inconsistencies, I don't know that Counsell would be ready to hand him the ninth.
Given his background, Wesneski fits perfectly in the middle-inning, multi-inning slot that every team needs these days, especially with starters rarely pitching deep into games like they once did. In an ideal world, Hendricks figures things out and the Cubs can bounce between Brown and Wesneski as the first guys out of the pen, perfectly setting the table for the late innings. But, as we know, this isn't a perfect world - so never say never, I guess.
3. Yency Almonte has turned things around after a rocky start to the year
The 'throw-in' piece in the Michael Busch trade, Yency Almonte, got off to an eventful start to his Cubs career, allowing five runs (four earned) in his first five appearances. Since then, however, the righty has run off a half-dozen consecutive scoreless outings to level things off a bit from a numbers standpoint.
He's got the swing-and-miss arsenal for the late innings, too. During those six appearances, spanning 5 2/3 innings, he's racked up nine punchouts. The big question for Almonte, as is often the case with relievers like this, is control. He ranks in the bottom 13% of the league in walk rate and free passes are obviously something you want to avoid with the game on the line.
Maybe Almonte getting things back on track will prompt Counsell to at least give him a chance in the ninth here soon. After all, it was just two years ago he was a shutdown reliever for Dave Roberts and the Dodgers. But I think the Cubs have a couple of internal options better suited for the role and that'll keep Almonte in more of a seventh-inning role for now.
2. I'm letting myself believe Keegan Thompson is once again a dude
Maybe it's the mustache that's driving his renaissance performance in 2024, but Keegan Thompson is very much looking like the guy who turned heads back in 2021 and 2022 as a potential future closer.
His numbers were never eye-popping, but when he was on, he was untouchable - and that's a good way to describe Thompson in his three appearances since joining the big league club. In six scoreless innings, the right-hander has struck out nine, walked just two and is yet to allow a base hit.
The walk rate could improve, sure, but he's striking out over 42% of the batters he's facing and, while he isn't yet qualified due to innings totals, Thompson's Baseball Savant page is red-hot. He ranks near the top of the league in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, chase rate and several other metrics.
Who do I want closing games? A guy who misses bats. Someone hitters aren't seeing well. A pitcher like Thompson, who seems rejuvenated and ready to re-establish himself as a key Cubs reliever.
1. In a crisis, go with the guy who's got the experience: Hector Neris
Hector Neris has been pretty not great this year. There's no two ways around it. But, like Almonte, he's slowly rounded into form, which really shouldn't come as a shock given he's been as consistent and effective as they come for much of the last decade with Houston and Philadelphia.
The veteran hasn't allowed a run since April 8 in San Diego and, frankly, if the Cubs are going anywhere this year, they're going to need their key offseason bullpen addition to earn his $9 million paycheck.
Neris hasn't been a huge strikeout guy this year, but what he does incredibly well is keep the ball on the ground - something that should give us some sort of peace of mind because it's a lot harder to blow a save when guys are hitting ground balls than when they're regularly putting it in the air (just ask Alzolay).
Look, I get this isn't the sexy pick. The Wrigleyville faithful don't get hyped to see an almost 35-year-old come in from the left-field bullpen to close out a game. But this is a guy who's saved more than 20 games twice in his career, has a ton of experience for winning organizations and is your highest-paid reliever. If you need to stop the bleeding in the ninth, this is the guy have to turn to.