Questions and concerns regarding the Chicago Cubs bullpen
It has been a rollercoaster ride watching the Chicago Cubs relievers work so far this season. We are about a month in and there are still concerns and questions being asked. Roles are still being figured out by Cubs manager David Ross. Some results have been very good, while others have not.
Entering Saturday's game, the Cubs sport a bullpen ERA of 4.17, which is 12th highest in baseball, along with a 3.75 FIP (19th highest), 1.26 WHIP (14th), 11.02 K/9 (2nd highest) and 4.17 BB/9 (4th highest) in 90.2 innings pitched. These results can be broken down and raise specific questions and concerns.
Concern #1: Walks Kill
One of the issues we have seen from this bullpen is walks. It has directly impacted the results of games.
Entering Saturday, six Cubs relievers have pitched at least 10 innings so far this year. This includes Michael Fulmer, Brad Boxberger, Keegan Thompson, Mark Leiter Jr, Michael Rucker, and Adbert Alzolay. Between those seven guys, they have issued 34 walks in 65 appearances. The average BB/9 between these six pitchers is roughly 4.3. It is worth noting that Alzolay and Rucker have not been bitten by the walk nearly as much as the other four in that group.
These are the things that are killer late in games. While the Cubs have been good at getting the strikeouts, having the second-highest K/9 in the Majors, all it takes is one ball in play to impact an entire game if there are guys on base that had been given a free pass. Opponents will beat you at times, but giving them opportunities has been frustrating.
Hopefully the command for some of these guys will improve because those walks will bite back even harder if they keep being issued the way they are in big spots.
Concern/Question #2: Who is the closer?
This has been a real rollercoaster. Early on the closer role was more or less Michael Fulmer's job, until several blown saves and blowup against the Dodgers in a tie game in the ninth got him yanked from higher-leverage spots. Fulmer has 16 strikeouts in 11.1 innings, but nine earned runs and five walks along with that.
The other logical option was going to a guy with closer experience in Brad Boxberger. The 35-year-old veteran righty has a solid resume overall but has had an interesting start to this season. He sports a 3.60 ERA, 1.2 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 which does not seem awful but not superb. However, the six walks in 10 innings coupled with a 6.25 FIP is a bit nerve-wracking. He has had to grind his way and get defensive help in some of his outings. You want a closer to more or less dominate. Can he be trusted in that spot? Time will tell, hopefully, he finds what he has last year in Milwaukee.
There's the speculation from observers that guys like Brandon Hughes (your only lefty), Adbert Alzolay or Keegan Thompson could play in that role. Hughes has shown some nasty stuff so far, but he is good to have against lefties along with Mark Leiter Jr. Thompson's results have been good, but the strikeout numbers are lower (7.4 K/9) and the 11 walks in 14.2 innings are...scary. Alzolay has looked very solid and can miss bats, but he is useful to have when taking over for a starting pitcher who leaves the game.
This is why right now there is no slam-dunk answer other than either going off resume or the hot hand.
Question #3: Will Thompson or Alzolay's roles evolve?
As mentioned earlier, Alzolay has come into games often following the departure of a starting pitcher. So far this year he sports a 2.92 ERA, 2.70 FIP 0.92 WHIP, 15 strikeouts and three walks in 12.1 innings. At the start of the year he had pitched multiple innings, but recently he has been limited to 1.0 or less innings over his past five appearances.
One could ask if he is evolving into being a one-inning guy and maybe a future high-leverage pitcher, or if this is just how things have worked out in recent games. It would be nice to have him go multiple innings if the starters cannot make it past the fifth inning, just to save some bullets in the pen. Though if he is needed in certain spots then he has the stuff to do it. Something to keep an eye on as the season goes along.
What makes Alzolay's role interesting compared to Thompson's, who we have seen in higher leverage spots, is that Thompson has more walks and fewer strikeouts, as mentioned earlier. Thomspon has only given up two earned runs to his credit and stayed cool in tough situations. That said, one can worry about how long he can sustain walking more guys than desired and getting out of it.
If Thompson is still getting through the innings and not giving up runs, he will pitch where he is. Things could change if the walks turn into too many runs. Hopefully, he can cut down on the walks and continue to be effective. Do not want to rip on Thompson too much as he has come up with some big outs so far this year and he deserves credit for it.
Question #4: Can Jeremiah Estrada be part of the equation?
The Cubs had called up Jeremiah Estrada after Javier Assad was sent back down to Triple-A back on April 21st. The 24-year-old righty has only made one appearance since, and that was at the end of the 13-0 blowout win over the Dodgers. Since then he has sat in the pen not seeing any action.
Estrada is more of an unknown but it would be wise to see more of what he can do. There is promise in his arm and he has not yet had much time to show it off. If there are continued struggles in certain areas of the pen, it could be worth giving him more looks. Not necessarily in high-leverage spots, but middle innings or certain matchups. Build him up to see what you have.
The main guys in this pen have worked pretty hard, and the innings will pile up. If they can get value in a guy like Estrada it will help make organizing the pen and spreading the work a bit easier.
We cannot say this bullpen has been awful, at times it has been very effective. The basic ERA, FIP, WHIP stats have the Cubs pen as a collective pretty much middle of the road. With that said, the Cubs cannot give away too many games if they want a chance to play beyond 162. Luckily, it is still very early.