Prospects of the Week for Chicago Cubs Affiliates for the Week for 5/21-5/28

Chicago Cubs Triple-A Pitcher of the week: RHP Caleb Kilian (25 Years Old)

1 G, 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K

Could this have gone to Ben Brown this week? Absolutely. Should it have gone to Brown he struck out nearly twice as many batters in only an extra third of an inning. Perhaps. However, as one of the two main pieces in the Kris Bryant trade to San Francisco, and someone that had a season in 2022 similar to Brown’s 2023, it was important to see Kilian bounce back this week after David Ross said he “wasn’t ready” for the big leagues earlier this season. 

Last year at AAA Kilian pitched 26 games and had a K/9 of 10.55. He was walking too many at 4.98 BB/9, but he was striking guys out, and even with a bloated BABIP of .356, he was stranding runners 71.2% of the time thanks in large part to a high ground ball rate. All that being said, Kilian has greatly reduced his walks this season by nearly two batters per nine innings, decreased his BABIP by more than 80 points, and is stranding runners at a higher rate. 

Even with all of those advanced metrics working in his favor, Kilian has a higher ERA (4.45) compared to last year (4.22) and when looking at FIP (6.53 in 2023 compared to 3.76 in 2022) and xFIP (5.63 in 2023 compared to 4.15 in 2022) it’s even more lopsided. So that begs the question: What can Kilian do to be better?

The short answer is he needs to strike more guys out and give up less hard contact. He may be walking fewer guys, but in doing so he’s also striking out more than three fewer batters this year than last year. Beyond that, even with that insane 80% strand rate he has this year, he’s giving up more runs because he’s giving up nearly four times as many home runs per nine innings this year than he was last year. 

This week Kilian did what we needed to see from him. He struck out more batters than innings pitched and he didn’t allow a home run in the three hits he gave up. If Kilian can induce weak contact, he seemingly has the skills to strand the runners on base, he just needs to limit the long ball and he did that this week. Let’s hope he does it again next week. 

Chicago Cubs Double-A Hitter of the week: C Pablo Aliendo (21 Years Old)

.286/.348/.762 2 BB, 4 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R

The Cubs suddenly have several interesting catchers in the system. Amaya was nearly the player of the week at the AAA level, Aliendo is the player of the week at AA and he won’t be the last catcher you see on this list. 

Aliendo is a perfect example of why you have to be patient with IFA signings. He signed in 2018 for $200,000 out of Venezuela and had a wRC+ of less than 100 in every season prior to 2022 and even then it was only a 105 last year. This year his wRC+ is an impressive 162 as he’s batted .280/.358/.624 with a whopping .344 ISO. 

This week Aliendo continued to show off that power as every single hit he had this week went for extra bases. Did he strike out too much? Yes. He struck out eight times in the five games he played which isn’t going to cut it as he continues to move through the system. However, at the end of the day, the Cubs have a 21-year-old catcher at AA that just had a week like this and he’s arguably the third-best catcher in the system. 

For the last several years the Cubs system has been barren. For years before that it was top-heavy. Now, the Cubs have legitimate players that will seemingly have the ability to contribute as major league players and Aliendo absolutely appears to be one of those players, even if he doesn’t stick behind the dish. 

Chicago Cubs Double-A Pitcher of the week: RHP Porter Hodge (22 Years Old)

1 G, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K

This looked like it would go to Kohl Franklin this week, and I would’ve been happy about it. The 23-year-old was solid this week, pitching 5.2 and only giving up two runs on five hits and no walks, but he only struck out three. 

Porter Hodge on the other hand struck out plenty and allowed fewer runs and hits in his start. The former 13th-round pick has had some ups and downs, but one of the things that I find most interesting is the fact that the Cubs have stuck with him as a starter despite the mass exodus of starting pitching prospects that the Cubs have transitioned to relievers this year which includes: Luke Little, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson, and Daniel Palencia. It’s not to say that the Cubs don’t believe in those guys as much as they believe in Hodge, but it is telling that as they were pushing buttons and pulling levers, the Cubs chose not to push the button that would move Hodge to the pen. 

What that tells me, even though MLB Pipeline said “If he ends up as a reliever, his fastball/slider combination might make him a high-leverage option,” that the Cubs intend to keep Hodge as a starter long term and if he continues to make starts like the one he had last week we are all very lucky.

Last year he had a 2.01 ERA at High-A, but this year he has a 4.54. There are a myriad of reasons that could be, his strikeouts are down, walks are up, his BABIP is up pretty significantly and his strand rate is much lower than last year’s. That being said, I’m ok with all of that because last year’s numbers were not sustainable. His strand rate last year was nearly 86% and the league average is 73%. His strand rate his year is only 63% which could imply that we will see that progress to the mean and he’ll be closer to his FIP of 3.15 (which is better than last year’s) than he will be to his 4.54 ERA. If that’s the case then we should be seeing him climb prospect boards by mid-season.

Chicago Cubs A+ Hitter of the week: OF Ezequiel Pagan (22 Years Old)

.316/.364/.474 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 1-1 SB

The slash line is pretty ordinary and so are the counting categories. That being said, Pagan stood out on a team that was offensively inept all week. He was the only player with a batting average above .235. He was the only player with a slugging percentage over .400, and he was the only player on this offense with a home run this week.

The question becomes: is Ezequiel Pagan truly the best player at this level for the Cubs and I think we can say no relatively easily. This level has James Triantos, the Cubs 2021 second-round pick, and Kevin Alcantara who the Cubs got in the Anthony Rizzo trade. Both of those players have a significantly higher upside than Pagan as they’re both top ten prospects in the Cubs system according to MLB.com after the graduation of Matt Mervis and Pagan doesn’t even find his name in the top 30.

However, there is something to be said about production. The 2018 13th-round pick out of the Puerto Rico ProBaseball Academy has consistently done everything right this year. He’s carrying a slash line on the season of .371/.426/.515. He’s not a big guy at 5’9, 163 pounds, but he controls the strike zone and only strikes out about 15% of the time according to FanGraphs. We’d love to see him draw a few more walks as he only does that about 7% of the time, but there is a reasonable amount of upside here.

His wRC+ this season is 172 with the average player carrying a wRC+ of 100. The only thing that is a little concerning and could lead to Pagan coming back down to earth is the .430 BABIP. It would be less concerning if his numbers were less predicated on balls in play but because he walks so little and doesn’t have huge power (only a .144 ISO) that leads me to think that if he stops getting lucky on balls in play then the numbers will look a lot more pedestrian.

Chicago Cubs A+ Pitcher of the week: RHP Connor Noland (23 Years Old)

1 G, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K

The Cubs drafted Connor Noland out of the University of Arkansas in the 9th round of last year’s draft and he’s been a solid contributor this year. He’s struck out more than a batter per inning and he’s been dominant in the month of May. In fact, if you remove the start at the end of April in which he gave up four runs over three innings against the Peoria Chiefs, he hasn’t given up more than a single run in any game he’s pitched.

Good teams have players like Connor Noland. Pitchers that act as depth can become middle relievers or back of the rotation arms. This doesn’t happen by accident. Occasionally you have to draft college pitchers without much projectability left in their frame and know that you’re not getting an ace that can anchor a staff, something the Cubs have been unwilling to do in years past, going instead for the bats or the prep pitchers. That being said, the Cubs liked him enough to give him an over-slot signing bonus despite the fact that he was a senior in college which gave him extremely limited leverage in negotiations. 

One thing that I love about Noland is that he was a four-star recruit as a quarterback when he committed to Arkansas. Multi-sport athletes tend to have more of the leadership qualities you look for someone to have and are generally more athletic as a whole because they aren’t hyper-specified in their characteristics. 

I loved the Noland pick at the time and he has done nothing but continue to impress and the best part is: it appears to be repeatable. Looking at his advanced metrics there isn’t anything that jumps out as lucky. He’s got a K/9 rate over nine, a BB/9 under two, a BABIP of .281, and a lower FIP at 2.45 than his ERA of 2.51. All of that combined with his ability to keep the ball on the ground against him at a 43.2% rate means that he’s limiting hard contact. If he keeps this up he could be a number four or five in a good rotation as soon as the end of 2024.

Chicago Cubs Single-A Hitter of the week: OF Felix Stevens (23 Years Old)

.316/.435/.579 4 BB, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, 1-2 SB

Felix Stevens got the nod for this week’s Myrtle Beach bat of the week due to his ability to get on base with hard contact. He’s entering his third season of A-Ball so we won’t get too overexcited about the things he’s done well as a 23-year-old that is more than two years older than the average player at the level. 

That being said, there are some things to like about the week he had this week and the year that he’s having as a whole. His K rate is still astronomical at 31.5% but it’s lower than it was last year by nearly two percentage points and he’s increased his walk percentage by nearly three percentage points compared to last season. 

Like I said though, the biggest difference between this week and previous weeks/years has been his ability to get on base with hard contact. His OBP is higher than it has ever been and nearly a hundred points higher than it has been at any level since 2019. His ISO is .223 so far this season which is significantly higher than the .190 he carried last season.

Unfortunately, much like Pagan at the High-A level, it appears to be BABIP aided. Stevens has speed, but not enough to carry a .414 BABIP. That strikes me as more lucky than good and I don’t expect him to appear back on the list of players of the week any time soon, but if we have more promotions coming then I’d love to see him at the High-A level to see if he can keep this up against a little better, more mature, pitching. 

Chicago Cubs Single-A Pitcher of the week: LHP Jackson Ferris (19 Years Old)

1 G, 3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K

Speaking of mature pitching, it’s kind of difficult to justify a guy that only pitched in a single game and only three innings of that game as the pitcher of the week, but Jackson Ferris is the exception to the rule. This is a player that the Cubs drafted who, as a junior in high school, “threw a no-hitter and a perfect game in his first two outings”.

That’s not a misprint. To do that as a junior in high school and then dominate again as a senior, and finally be so dominant with the Pelicans so far this year is nothing short of astounding. He’s 19 years old and so far this year through four starts he’s only given up five hits and four walks while striking out 16. The batting average against him is .135.

So is it the three innings he pitched this week that had him make this list? No. It’s the fact that he is the best player in the Cubs minor league system. Not the best left-handed pitcher, not the best pitcher, but the flat-out best player in the Cubs system that could potentially become a top-five prospect in all of baseball. 

There may be no such thing as a pitching prospect, but if I were to think of one as a Cubs fan, it would be Jackson Ferris. I’m not old enough to remember Kerry Wood or Mark Prior’s first game in a Cubs uniform, but this guy has as much hype (and talent) as either of them; we just have to hope he reaches his potential, and hopefully maintain that potential without injury for longer than the two of them did. 

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