Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Wednesday, June 14 (Happ Keeps Crushing his Hometown Team)

Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ (8)
Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ (8) / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Last night at a rainy Wrigley Field it was the two outfielders playing against their hometown teams that dominated. Ian Happ continued to torch the Pittsburgh Pirates with a home run and four RBI in the game, and Jack Suwinski crushed two more home runs against his hometown Chicago Cubs. The Cubs took an 11-3 win as the Pittsburgh pitching staff showed its lack of depth.

Tonight that depth, or lack thereof, will be tested as 27-year-old Osvaldo Bido makes his major league debut for the Pirates. The Cubs have a decade of major league experience on the mound as Drew Smyly makes his 14th start of the season. Smyly is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA.

With the lefty on the mound, the Cubs are big home favorites as they look to make it nine straight series victories against the first place Pirates. Pittsburgh comes in at 34-31 and Chicago is 29-37.

Pirates vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and pick

Offensively, the Cubs had been a disaster this month before they destroyed Pittsburgh’s pitching staff last night. Pittsburgh native, Ian Happ now has 15 career home runs against the Pirates and a .977 OPS in 83 career games. The Cubs are still last in team OPS in the month of June, but they have scored 37 runs which is 27th most and 30% of those came last night. They could have another big day against Bido. 

It’s not like Osvaldo Bido did anything to earn a promotion to the show, it was more like everybody else has failed, this guy can’t be worse. He has a 4.55 ERA at Triple-A this year and last time out he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings. It’s hard to fathom, but he might actually be worse. 

That doesn’t mean it will be totally smooth sailing for the Cubs though. Smyly has a 3.95 FIP and the Pirates have an OPS of .751 against lefties which is much better than their .725 vs. righties. Jack Suwinski will probably be out of the lineup which hurts Pittsburgh because he has the eighth best OPS in all of baseball, but Rodolfo Castro will be in the lineup and has a great matchup against Smyly. Not only is Smyly a lefty, Castro has a 1.145 OPS against lefties, but he throws a lot of sinkers and Castro carries a run value of eight against sinkers and a slugging percentage of .639. 

Pittsburgh has some pop in their lineup against lefties, but the Cubs finally woke up offensively in June, so I expect another high-scoring affair and likely another Chicago victory. 

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