Pegging the probabilities of these 5 free agents signing with the Cubs

Chances of the Cubs signing these free agents: Cody Bellinger - Medium to high

Let’s address the elephant in the room. We know what Cody Bellinger did in 2023, the red flags of his barrel rates and all the stuff we won’t re-hash here. The fact is, the Bellinger market is already disintegrating after teams made their moves. The Dodgers have Ohtani, the Yankees added Soto, the Mets aren’t in the market, the Giants added Jung Hoo Lee, etc. It appears this is down to the Cubs and Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays' hot pursuit of Ohtani worries me. They are willing to spend big this season. Does that mean they will drastically overpay for Bellinger? He had some very down years, followed by a remarkable comeback season on a contract year. You can bet he will have solid upside and overall sound production for you, but you can’t call him a perennial MVP candidate at this point.

If the Blue Jays ridiculously overpay for him, which shouldn’t be considered out of the realm of possibility with their clock ticking, then so be it. If they don’t, the Cubs will be in the bidding once the price comes down, where they should have the edge to bring him home.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs