Padres vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Wednesday, April 26 (Cubs undervalued)

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs are off to a fast start in the 2023 season, and they’re looking to keep their winning ways going on Wednesday night against the San Diego Padres. 

The Padres are just 12-13 so far this season, but they did get star Fernando Tatis Jr. back recently from his PED suspension. 

San Diego will have Michael Wacha (2-1, 7.08 ERA) on the mound in this game against lefty Drew Smyly (2-1, 2.13 ERA). Smyly took a perfect game into the eighth inning his last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Padres vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Padres vs. Cubs prediction and pick

I can’t believe that this game is set as a pick’em with the Cubs at home, especially since Wacha has allowed four or more runs in three of his four starts this season. 

The Padres right-hander has been awful despite his record, ranking in the eighth percentile in expected batting average against, sixth percentile in expected slugging percentage against and 12th percentile in expected ERA. 

That’s simply not going to get it done, especially with Smyly pitching some of his best baseball as of late. 

The Cubs lefty has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts after giving up six in his season debut. Smyly is really limiting damage, posting 18.1 innings of two-run, seven-hit ball in his last three games. 

The Padres have struggled hitting this season, ranking 24th in the league in OPS and 19th in OPS against left-handed pitching.

I love the Cubs and Smyly to pick up a win on Wednesday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.