Orioles vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Saturday, June 17 (Trust Steele)

May 31, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele (35) throws the
May 31, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele (35) throws the / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs took the first of three from the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field, can the Cubbies make it two in a row with one of its most promising young prospects on the mound?

The Cubs have cooled off after a hot start, but the team maintains plenty of elite pitching, including Marcus Stroman and Saturday's starter Justin Steele, who will need to be on his game against a formidable Orioles lineup in his first start off the injured list.

However, could the lefty Steele present problems for the Orioles bats, who haven't been its best against southpaws this season?

Here are the odds:

Orioles vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Cubs prediction and pick

The Orioles are hovering around the big league average against left handed pitching, and Steele has quickly emerged as one of the best in baseball this season. He has a 2.65 ERA on the year, but did hit the injured list with a forearm injury. He's back after some time off and I believe he's being undervalued because of it.

Steele doesn't make many mistakes, generating a ton of soft contact while walking about two batters per nine innings. The Orioles are not the most disciplined team at the plate, 22nd in on-base percentage since the calendar flipped to June, and can fall behind against Steele, even if he's limited in his first start off the IL.

Meanwhile, the Cubs offense went through a lull during May, but is back above league average in OBP this month (13th) and face Kyle Gibson, who has been getting away with subpar pitcing this season.

On the surface, Gibson's 3.90 ERA looks fine, but his strikeout numbers are the lowest it's been in eight season and his xERA is nearly a run higher at 4.71. He is standing nearly three-quarters of the runners on base despite allowing opponents to have a .302 batting average on balls in play.

I believe Gibson is going to take a step back on Saturday and Steele should come off the IL in fine form. I'll back the Cubs at home.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.