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NL Central standings ordered by run differential: Maybe the Cubs aren't as bad as we feared
The Cubs are sneaking back into the postseason picture and this metric suggests there might be cause for hope as the first half winds down.
The Chicago Cubs are just 3 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central entering Tuesday night's matchup against the Pirates. Chicago swept the Pirates last week at Wrigley and blew them out on Monday at PNC Park and now hand the ball to NL Cy Young candidate Marcus Stroman in the second game of the series.
The Cubs' recent stretch of strong play comes on the heels of a particularly disappointing run and instead of creating distance between themselves and the rest of the weak division, they spent the last week trying to claw their way back into the hunt. But given the poor play of the NL Central, one key metric suggests Chicago may be the best positioned to make a run down the stretch: run differential.
Note: All run differential figures are current as of 6/20/23
NL Central standings ordered by run differential: #5 - Pittsburgh Pirates
After a surprisingly strong start to the year, the Pittsburgh Pirates are free-falling since the start of May. Derek Shelton's club went 8-18 in May and are just 6-10 here in June, losers of four straight to the Cubs and seven straight overall.
Pittsburgh has a -32 run differential on the year; and if you dig into the numbers a bit more, you see a team that ranks ninth in the NL in OPS, but just 12th in runs. On the pitching side of the equation, it's a very middle-of-the-pack pitching performance from the Bucs, with a team ERA that ranks eighth in the Senior Circuit.
The club promoted top prospect Henry Davis for the series opener this week at PNC Park in hopes his powerful bat can jump-start the Pirates offense. But the feel-good vibes have worn off and this is a team searching for answers as the All-Star Break approaches.
NL Central standings ordered by run differential: #4 - Milwaukee Brewers
It will likely surprise quite a few of you to see the Brewers - widely regarded as the division favorites - as the team with the fourth-worst run differential in the NL Central, but that's the case here in late June. That doesn't mean they won't wind up as the last club standing when it's all said and done, but it's certainly worth noting.
Milwaukee, at -24 run differential, is the only team in the division that is yet to eclipse 300 runs scored on the season so, once again, it's a question of offense for the Brewers. Craig Counsell's club ranks sixth in the National League in ERA and fourth in starter's ERA - but checks in dead last in the league in runs and OPS.
That's long been the knock on this franchise, but they've somehow found a way to scrape out enough runs to be competitive in recent years. Corbin Burnes hasn't been as dominant as he has over the last couple of seasons but former Cub Wade Miley has been a pleasant surprise for Chicago's neighbor to the north.
NL Central standings ordered by run differential: #3 - Cincinnati Reds
The National League Central's hottest team - the surging Cincinnati Reds - are winners of nine straight and carry a half-game lead into action Tuesday against the Rockies.
Veteran clubhouse leader Joey Votto returned with a bang in the opener and rookie Elly De La Cruz continues to impress in his first taste of big league action. Despite their recent hot streak, the Reds still have a -18 run differential on the season, the fifth-worst mark in the National League.
Cincinnati ranks fifth in the league in runs and sit pretty middle of the pack in terms of OPS - but have the second-best on-base percentage in the NL. The Reds' starting rotation has been abysmal, ranking 14th in ERA (and it's not like the relief corps has been much better) - so this one can be chalked up firmly to an issue keeping runs off the board, not putting them up.
Flame-throwing right-hander Hunter Greene hit the IL this week, which will do the Reds zero favors. Averaging north of 12 strikeouts per nine, Greene has been a solid piece for Cincinnati this season and they'll have to find a way to keep the ship afloat till he returns (because the staff has barely managed to keep it from sinking even with him in the mix).
NL Central standings ordered by run differential: #2 - St. Louis Cardinals
The apocalypse has come to St. Louis, with the so-called 'best fans in baseball' losing their minds over their beloved team's woeful start to the 2023 season. The Cardinals are just 30-43, eight games out of first and in last place in the NL Central. But maybe - just maybe - there's reason to think they can turn it around. After all, they've got the second-best run differential in the division at -13.
St. Louis pitching ranks tenth in the league in ERA and Cardinals starters rank 12th in that metric. Much has been made of the departure of Yadier Molina and the shortcomings of Willson Contreras in his first year with the team - and it's clear there's been at least some impact made by the changing of the guard.
Offensively speaking, St. Louis has the fifth-highest team OPS in the league and rank sixth in runs. Figuring out the pitching staff is the make-or-break for Oli Marmol's ballclub but right now, even seeing the run differential probably won't make Cardinals fans feel better.
NL Central standings ordered by run differential: #1 - Chicago Cubs
The flags atop the Wrigley Field scoreboard might not reflect it, but in terms of run differential, your Chicago Cubs are the #1 team in the National League Central with a +17 mark here on June 20.
The insertion of Mike Tauchman into the leadoff spot has provided a badly-needed spark offensively, but the Cubs are, at best, a fairly pedestrian team with the bat. The pitching, especially the starting rotation, has kept the team in the hunt to this point - headlined by Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly.
Chicago has to maintain this momentum offensively and some reinforcements at the deadline could go a long way toward shoring things up. Hopefully, the return of Cody Bellinger will be another 'plus' in that column, but that remains to be seen given the uncertainty regarding the status of his injured knee.
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The Cubs are clearly trending in the right direction and this metric, which optimists have pointed to all year long, even during the rough stretches, suggest this team is very much in the hunt in a diminished National League Central.