The Chicago Cubs dropped the opener of a three game series against the Washington Nationals, but will look to bounce back against one of the worst pitchers in baseball in Patrick Corbin.
Corbin has struggled all season long and his underlying metrics are even worse. Can the Cubs get back on track after Jameson Taillon flashed some upside after a tough start to the year, pitching eight innings of one run baseball and his last start before the All-Star break?
Here are the odds and our best bet for Tuesday night's matchup:
Nationals vs. Cubs odds, run line and total
Nationals vs. Cubs prediction and pick
Corbin is a disaster on the mound, posting a 4.89 ERA this season, but his underlying metrics are even worse. He has an xERA of 6.26 and has allowed a .321 batting average on balls in play. When teams are making contact against Corbin, it's been a tough go.
The Cubs are 11th in batting average against southpaws this season, so the team is already performing well against southpaws. I expect the Cubbies to keep it up on Tuesday.
As well, I expect Taillon to bring his strong form before the All-Star break into the second half of the year. The right hander has been a prime positive regression candidate all season.
He has a 6.15 ERA with an xERA of 5.37. Taillon has only been able to stand 57% of batters on base, one of the lowest marks of qualified starters in the big leagues, but he has posted a 4.50 ERA across his last three starts, a positive sign moving forward.
With Corbin's struggles on the mound, and Taillon's fine play of late, I'll take the Cubs to win big at home.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.