Mets vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 23 (Eye total)

May 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly (11) delivers a pitch
May 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly (11) delivers a pitch / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs are back home after an extended road trip after dropping six of seven games to playoff contending teams such as the Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.

The grind continues for the rebuilding Cubs, who face a surging Mets team that is hoping to turn around its season with a weekend sweep of the Guardians and five straight wins overall. The Cubs send out left hander Drew Smyly, who is enjoying a strong year in Chicago while the Mets counter with rookie Kodai Senga.

Here are the odds and our best bet for Tuesday's series opener:

Mets vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Cubs prediction and pick

The Mets offense has made a recent jump after calling up prospects like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, but the team still can't hit lefty pitching, 22nd in batting average against southpaws at .240.

This is important for Smyly, who has been elite at avoiding jams, posting the lowest WHIP in the National League thus far (0.934). The lefty has avoided walks and has been fantastic at generating soft contact. The Mets are playing better, but not primed to attack the Cubs starter.

However, Chicago's offense is also not equipped to match up against Senga. The 30-year-old rookie is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, but has struggled to avoid barrels, allowing a home run on 13% of fly balls. However, the Cubs aren't as dangerous as the plate of late, just below league average in slugging percentage over the last month and 15th in slugging against right handers.

Overall, this is shaping up for a pitcher's duel as both have a leg up on each team's lineup. Give me the under on Tuesday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.