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Kyle Hendricks, Stroman, and Steele to lead Cubs into second half against Red Sox
With the second half of the season almost underway, the Chicago Cubs have a reliable trio set to face the Boston Red Sox.
The second half of the season is just about underway in Chicago, and where the Chicago Cubs currently stand is murky, to say the least.
Being five games below .500 and seven games out of first place, it certainly isn't the most ideal of conditions for the Cubs, but in the midst of the uncertainty, there is one constant throughout this season–– Do not count on the NL Central, even as the Reds continue to make their run.
But if there's one thing the Cubs can depend on to help paint that clearer picture on where they stand coming out of the All-Star Break, they're sending them to the mound for the coming days.
Facing the Red Sox at Wrigley, this first series out of the break is huge to not only inch closer to that .500 mark but also set a positive tone for the second half of the season––And what better way to do it than with three of the positive notes from the first half?
With Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, and Justin Steele set to be the starters across the three-game set with Boston, the Cubs have the necessary weapons on the mound. Let's take a look at just how they'll match up against the Red Sox this weekend:
Friday: Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 3.04 ERA) vs. Brayan Bello (6-5, 3.04 ERA)
The opening matchup for this series features two polar opposites: A seasoned vet versus a 24-year-old solidifying his name as the future of the Red Sox rotation.
Through 24 starts of his young career since debuting in July 2022, Brayan Bello has done just about everything asked of the Red Sox, especially in his 2023 campaign.
Across 14 starts and 80 innings this season, Bello's seen significant success with his changeup in his arsenal. Relying on it 22.1% of the time, Bello produces a 43.9% whiff rate as it has caused hitters to post a .173 average and .200 slugging on the pitch with a 7-run value.
Ranking up there in run value for Bello is his go-to sinker, also producing a 7 while relying on it 35.2% of the time. But, it's also hit considerably harder with a 45.3% hard-hit rat compared to the changeup's 25.5%.
Across all pitches, Bello has topped out at 97.5 MPH this season with his four-seamer, and that's where the next "polar opposite" case comes into play for this pitching matchup against someone who hasn't topped out at a pitch above 90 MPH since 2019.
The Cubs have been grateful to have Kyle Hendricks not only back after a shoulder injury sidelined him for half of 2022 and the beginning of this season, but they've been even more grateful that the 33-year-old has been able to still be the consistent veteran that this staff has needed.
If there were any doubts if Hendricks had anything left in him after a shoulder surgery and missing so much time, he's kept the doubters quiet as he's squeezed back into the rotation.
In nine starts and 53.1 innings pitched, Hendricks has produced a 1.03 WHIP for his lowest since the shortened 2020 season in which he started 12 games to produce a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Interestingly enough, he's also ranked fourth across all of baseball with a 0.86 WHIP since June 1st with Bello following close behind at seventh on that list.
In that stretch, Hendricks has also ranked third in walk rate (2.9) and fifth in hard-hit rate (24.8%) while opponents have hit just .200 against him in that span.
Out of his arsenal this season, Hendricks has been using his changeup the most at 37.8%, the very same pitch that produced a career-best across all pitches with 16 run value. This year, it's caused opponents to bat just .151 against it while producing a 29.1% whiff rate.
In terms of a game one matchup, both teams seem to have the ideal guys on the mound. The Red Sox are riding into the second half of the season off the highs of a five-game win streak that they entered the break with, while the Cubs are looking for a spark to ignite a hot streak. Between Hendricks' ability to show out when the Cubs need him most and Bello's recent track record (that included both a no-hit bid against the Marlins and him holding the red-hot Rangers to just two runs), Chicago is in for a showing on the mound, one way or another.
Saturday: Marcus Stroman (9-6, 2.96 ERA) vs James Paxton (5-1, 2.73 ERA)
Don't let his last two starts fool you, Marcus Stroman has put the Cubs on his back this season.
Through 19 starts and 112.1 innings with the Cubs this season, Stroman ranks fourth in the National League (and 11th across all of baseball) in ERA with his 2.96 and sits sixth in the NL in WHIP at 1.11.
For Stroman, much of his success is attributed to his heavy sinker usage, using it 45.4% of the time out of his repertoire to contribute to a second-best in baseball 59% ground ball rate. Hitters are posting a .224 average and .291 slugging against the sinker, but when generating whiffs, his slurve (35% whiff rate) and cutter (26.1% whiff rate) have come in handy in his 21.6% strikeout rate.
Between those three pitches, Baseball Savant has them at a combined 21-run value, led by the slurve with an 8 individually.
The first half of the season awarded Stroman with his second career All-Star nod, especially after a star-studded June with a 2.17 ERA across 29 innings, but Stroman isn't the only one in this matchup coming off a hot June. But, similarly to Friday's matchup, Saturday has another case of opposite pitchers as Stroman gears up to face one who ranks towards the bottom of the league in ground ball rate.
Sidelined with the Tommy John recovery process and a hamstring injury, James Paxton didn't make his return to the mound until May 12th after missing all of 2022, but his return has been something for Red Sox fans to find joy in after the 34-year-old has come back with a 2.73 ERA across 56 innings in 10 starts.
June alone has kept Paxton on the good side of Boston, taking home AL Pitcher of the Month honors after posting a 1.74 ERA across 31 innings with a 0.77 WHIP, the fourth-best WHIP in baseball for the month of June.
In his return to the mound, Paxton has been relying on his four-seamer 56.9% of the time, just as he's done for his 11-year career in the Majors. Historically, his four-seamer has ranked at the top of his arsenal in run value, peaking at a 17 in 2017 while with the Mariners.
With the four-seamer, it's proved to be valuable alongside his cutter and curveball to generate whiffs, led by a 37.9% whiff rate on the curve. All come into play when considering his 29.1% K rate and overall tends to produce more whiffs and fly balls rather than ground balls with a 37.9% ground ball rate this season.
As I said, Saturday has two different types of pitchers on the mound, but who doesn't love getting to see different displays of art?
Sunday: Justin Steele (9-2, 2.56 ERA) vs. Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.11 ERA)
Sunday's series finale brings us the most Southern matchup of the whole weekend.
I know I mentioned Marcus Stroman putting the Cubs on his back, but it's Justin Steele that'll be the backbone of the Cubs rotation for the coming years.
While missing out on yet another MLB power ranking, Cubs fans are able to attest to just how good Steele has been for Chicago this season.
Through 16 starts and 91.1 innings this season, Steele ranks within the top 15 in baseball across several stats, including 4th in ERA, 12th in WHIP (1.06), 7th in FIP (2.86), and tied for 1st with Framber Valdez and Clayton Kershaw in ERA- (60).
In terms of his arsenal, the main culprits of his success all lie within what Yan Gomes called his "country-boy fastball" earlier this season, the pitch that's created a16 run value that ranks in the top 10 of all pitches in baseball, and his slider. They're the two pitches he almost exclusively relies on, using the fastball 63.2% of the time and the slider for 32.8%.
Facing off against the Cubs ace is Kutter Crawford, who also relies on the four-seamer out of his six-pitch arsenal, using it 39.8% of the time.
But, before you ask, yes! A cutter is, in fact, included in Kutter Crawford's arsenal, and it's actually what he uses about 28% of the time.
Unfortunately for him, his namesake hasn't fared him well this season–– hitters have had the most success off this pitch this season, batting .365 with a .556 slugging and .408 wOBA, compared to a .171 average, .317 slugging, and .252 wOBA on his four-seamer.
With a 23.1% K rate, he generates the most swings and misses from the four-seamer at 29.5%.
Between Hendricks, Stroman, and Steele, it seems the Cubs have placed their faith in the hands of a reliable trio that's helped keep them in it up to this point in the season. Happy second half, Cubs fans!
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