Despite 2024 success, the Cubs face big questions when it comes to the 2025 rotation

The starting rotation has overall been one of the brighter spots on this strange 2024 Chicago Cubs team. Heading into Saturday's action, Cubs starters boasted a 3.87 ERA (9th in MLB), 4.04 FIP (12th), 1.22 WHIP (7th) and 10.3 fWAR (11th) on the year. The work of Shōta Imanaga and Justin Steele has highlighted the rotation. Plus, there were some excellent efforts early on in the season from Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon and rookie Ben Brown.

With all this said, there are questions regarding the rotation looking ahead to 2025. While the rotation as a whole has been good this year, in the second half we have seen some chinks in the armor get breached a bit. We cannot overlook notable injuries to the likes of Brown (a mystery neck issue that nobody seems to have an answer to), 2021 first-rounder Jordan Wicks and top prospect Cade Horton over the past several months.

Steele right now feels the "safest". He has given the Cubs multiple years of All-Star-caliber dominance and has emerged as a leader on the team. Imanaga will enter his second year as an MLB pitcher next year, and he'll face a league that's had a year to get to know his repertoire and plan of attack. He has been prone to giving up the home run ball (13 HR over his last 10 starts), which was not unexpected. Still, those 10 starts saw him pitch to a 3.23 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. This is not to say Imanaga will completely go to pieces in 2025, but we will likely not see him pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA through mid-June as we did this season.

As for the likes of Taillon and Assad, there are two conversations. Taillon has had an overall solid season sporting a 3.85 ERA, 4.15 FIP and 1.2 WHIP in 23 starts. If the season were to end today, he would have pitched to the back of his baseball card. What's noteworthy was him boasting a 2.96 ERA through 17 starts with a 3.80 FIP. He was pitching well, but the FIP and contact rate against would tell you the ERA would likely regress a bit, and it since has. Over his last six starts, he sports a 6.55 ERA and eight homers against. He is set to make $18 million next year, which is a tad hefty for the type of pitcher he is, and he will likely be here. If he pitches to around these 2024 numbers, it's fine results-wise as a fourth or fifth starter but ideally no higher.

Assad, who to his credit has ultimately gotten the desired results, has walked a tightrope much of the year. He does not miss a lot of bats and is not overpowering. His 3.15 ERA has helped the team get some wins, and he has been good with preventing traffic from scoring, but a 4.50 FIP and 1.3 WHIP is walking a thin line. He is a career 3.10 ERA and 4.41 FIP pitcher. When things have gotten dicey, Assad has been able to limit things from blowing up for the most part which is impressive. Like Imanaga, he was sporting a sub-2.00 ERA in the early days of the season - which was not going to last. His being a swingman on the staff in the future seems like a good fit. Come out of the pen to get some outs and start when needed.

Let's circle back to the youngsters. Will Wicks come back from injury and finish strong heading into 2025? He should be prioritized over a veteran like Kyle Hendricks at this point. Will Brown's neck issue be a thing of the past? The mystery behind the injury is concerning, and he was looking very promising (3.58 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.1 WHIP, 10.4 K/9). Wicks coming back at least will give us another look at him this season.

The way it looks now, you have Steele and Imanaga set for the top two spots in the 2025 rotation, with Taillon at 4 or 5. Hopefully Wicks and/or Brown factor into the equation somewhere, as well. But there's definitely room to make an addition here, i.e. Corbin Burnes (however likely that is). Jed Hoyer, by no means, is starting from scratch, but there's work to be done here.