Cubs vs. Twins prediction and odds for Sunday, May 14 (Trust Marcus Stroman)

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (0) pitches.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (0) pitches. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs have their ace on the mound on Sunday as they look to close out their series with the Minnesota Twins with a win. 

Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28 ERA) has been terrific this season, but the Cubs have failed to get him the run support necessary, going just 3-5 in his eight starts. Stroman has allowed more than two runs in a start just one time all season. 

The Twins have youngster Louis Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) on the mound in this game. This is his fourth appearance of the season, and he’s coming off his best outing, allowing just one run across six innings against the San Diego Padres. 

Can Chicago give Stroman the support he deserves to pick up a win on Sunday? 

Here are the latest odds with the Cubs set as small underdogs:  

Cubs vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Cubs vs. Twins prediction and pick

Betting on the Cubs in Stroman’s starts has not been profitable this season, but I’m going to take them at even money in this game. 

Stroman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage and 55th in expected ERA. He’s pitched at least six innings in seven of his eight starts, allowing two or fewer runs in all seven of those outings. 

If he can duplicate that, this will be on Cubs’ bullpen to win the game. 

Chicago’s bullpen is ninth in MLB in ERA this season, and I think it should be protecting a lead given how Varland has looked this season. 

The 25-year-old has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.91 this season, and he allowed seven runs across 10.2 innings in his first two starts. 

While Minnesota is at home, I don’t see how the team is favored in this pitching matchup. Stroman is the clear better starter, and the Cubs are seventh in MLB in OPS while the Twins are 22nd. 

Fade Minnesota here. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.