The New York Mets decided to sell at the deadline and it was clearly the right call because after trading away a few pieces they’ve completely fallen apart even worse than they had prior to the deadline. New York has lost six straight games to fall to 50-61 while the Chicago Cubs chose to hold onto their best players and are 5-1 in their last six. Chicago is just 1.5 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central at 58-54 after taking two of three against Atlanta.
For Game 1 of this three-game series in Queens the Cubs will go with Drew Smyly against Kodai Senga. Smyly is 807 with a 4.71 ERA in 22 outings this year while Senga is 7-6 in his 20 starts with a 3.25 ERA.
Even though they’re teams headed in very different directions, the Mets are favored in Game 1 with Senga pitching.
Cubs vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Cubs vs. Mets prediction and pick
The Cubs have turned their season around and are going to win the NL Central because of how great their offense is right now. Cody Bellinger is leading the way with a 1.111 OPS over the last 30 days with seven home runs and 24 RBI over that stretch. For that 30-day sample size the Cubs are No. 1 in OPS and runs scored with 40 home runs in 24 games. At 17-7 they have the best record in that stretch.
The Mets are playing terribly and can’t drive in runs at the moment. In their six game slide they’ve only managed 14 runs and six of those came in the first game of the losing streak. The roster looks a whole lot different with the departures of key pieces like Mark Canha and Tommy Pham, both of which severely hinder their ability to create offense against left-handed pitchers like Smyly.
They say that momentum in baseball is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher and that might be true, but while Senga is better than Smyly, the Cubs are just much better than the Mets and there’s value in taking them as an underdog.
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