Cubs vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Friday, April 28 (Fade the Pitching with a low total)

Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger (24)
Chicago Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger (24) / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins scored a slump stopping win against the Braves on Thursday, 5-4, to get back to .500 at at 13-13 on the season as they welcome in the Chicago Cubs for a three-game series. The Cubs are 14-10 and coming off a win over the Padres. 

For Game 1, the starters will be Marcus Stroman for Chicago and Jesus Luzardo for Miami. Stroman is 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts while Luzardo is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA also in five starts. 

Let’s get into the odds for this Friday night matchup in Miami. 

Cubs vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Cubs vs. Marlins prediction and pick

Jesus Luzardo had a pretty strong start to his year with three good starts in a row, but his last two times out haven’t exactly been smooth sailing. He went four and one-third innings in each of his last two starts allowing three runs on six hits and four runs on eight hits respectively. I don’t expect his struggles to get worse because he is a good pitcher, however, I don’t know that he’s going to dazzle on the mound in this one. 

Part of the reason why is that the Cubs are getting Cody Bellinger back from the paternity list and Bellinger might not be playing like an MVP again, but he is playing great for the Cubs. He has a .930 OPS with five doubles, five homers and four stolen bases. His strikeout rate has dropped from 27.3% last year to 14.1% this year and he’s hitting lefties like Luzardo well this season. 

As a whole, the Cubs are hitting well against left-handed pitching with the sixth best OPS in the league as a team, .815. Marcus Stroman is throwing the ball well, but he does have a 3.87 FIP and 3.46 xERA with his 2.17 ERA which both scream regression. I’ll take the over in this one despite it looking like a fantastic pitching matchup at first glance. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change