While the Milwaukee Brewers are battling with the Chicago Cubs over this four-game series the Reds are starting to pull away in the NL Central standings. The Cubs have taken the last two and lead the series 2-1 heading into this afternoon’s finale in Milwaukee. The Brewers are now two games behind Cincinnati for the top spot in the division at 46-41 and the Cubs are third at 40-45.
For the finale, Chicago will have their ace on the mound as Marcus Stroman makes his 19th start of the year. Stroman is 9-6 with a 2.76 ERA and will be opposed by 5-7 Freddy Peralta who comes into his 17th start with a 4.67 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for the final game of this NL Central rivalry at American Family Field.
Cubs vs. Brewers odds, run line and total
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction and pick
Marcus Stroman has been good for the Cubs and is an all-star, but he hasn’t pitched like one in his last two starts. Over those two outings he has gone nine innings and surrendered 11 runs, but only eight were earned. He’s still keeping the ball in the ballpark with no home runs allowed since May 24, but he is seeing some serious regression that might not be over.
Stroman’s FIP is 3.30 which is actually lower than it was prior to these last two starts, but still higher than his ERA. His expected ERA is 3.72, so even worse, and he is 36th percentile in expected batting average. Stroman allows a lot of hard hit balls and his strikeout rate of 21.3% checks in at 36th percentile of the league. Stroman is a good pitcher, but he’s not as good as his ERA would say. I’m expecting a poor second half of the season for him and it looks like it’s already started.
Freddy Peralta on the other hand hasn’t been great and likely won’t be turning it around in any substantial way. He isn’t going deep into starts and has allowed 15 home runs already. This is a low total because of what Stroman has done so far this year, but for the pitcher I’m expecting him to be, it’s too low. I’ll take the over.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change