Cubs Prospects: 3 pitchers primed to breakout in 2023

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Examining the farm system for the Chicago Cubs in 2023, the team has a plethora of prospects in the organization that appear imminently due for a breakout season next year. Sometimes, overall numbers won't do a player justice and it's the tweaks, adjustments, and smaller sample sizes you see at the end of a season for certain players that put them in the conversation to be on the verge of putting it all together. As we know, the High-A South Bend Cubs won the Midwestern League Championship and a big reason was due to stellar pitching. Let's dive right into it. Here are 3 prospects I'm willing to roll the dice on that we can list as candidates to have a breakout season in 2023.

3 breakout candidates - 3. Luke Little

Luke Little was drafted in the 4th round of the shortened 2020 draft by the Cubs. After only pitching 11 innings in 2021 in Rookie Ball, Little started the 2022 season with The Myrtle Beach Pelicans this year and swiftly showed he was better than his competition. He appeared in 20 games, starting 19 of them, and put up a stellar 2.91 ERA in 52.2 innings of work. He also recorded 84 strikeouts during that period and put up video game numbers that included a 14.4 in the K/9 department.

Subsequently, he was brought up to High-A with South Bend wherein a small sample size he continued to shine. He actually lowered his WHIP to 0.923, down from 1.310 with Myrtle Beach, and logged a 0.69 ERA in 4 appearances and 13 frames. Not a bad start at all to your professional career. For the 2022 season, Little's final line between both leagues was a 2.47 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 65.2 frames. He'll more than likely start the 2023 campaign in South Bend, where if he continues that streak it won't be long before he climbs rankings and winds up in Tennessee for Double-A ball.

Only 22 years old, Little has a very bright future ahead of him. When he really lets it fly, he's been recorded notching 105.0 MPH on his fastball. That is not a typo. Little is quickly emerging as one of the Cubs' pitching prospects that has truly high potential but is still a couple of years away from the major league level. If he continues to keep control and keeps mowing down hitters as he's made a living doing thus far, it will ultimately be sooner rather than later that you hear his name on a more national level.

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Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs / Jamie Sabau/GettyImages

3 breakout candidates - 2. Daniel Palencia

Sticking with South Bend here, we move into candidate number two, Daniel Palencia. Acquired from the Andrew Chafin trade from Oakland in 2021, Palencia might wind up being an absolute steal for the Cubs. On the season, he recorded a 3.94 ERA over the course of 20 starts and 75.1 innings pitched. His FIP on the other hand was down at 3.72, suggesting he was slightly the victim of bad luck. More importantly, Palencia ended the year with 3 scoreless outings, punching out 15 over a combined 12 frames.

Palencia possesses a fastball that tops out over 100 mph, a solid slider that cruises into the 90s, and a curve ball that Fangraphs gives a 50/55 grade to. The most intriguing part that lands Palencia in the potential breakout category next year is not the raw stuff, It's his rapidly improving control and ability to start limiting walks. His BB9 went from 5.2 in 2021 to 4.2 in 2022. That wasn't the whole story, however. For reference, in April this year, over the course of 12 innings of work, Palencia walked 12 batters. Following that, between May and June combined he issued free passes to only 10 during a stretch of 35.1 innings.

Palencia, like Luke Little before him, is just 22 years old and has fiery high potential stuff that can potentially turn him into an elite prospect. Looking at Northside Bound's new list of Cubs' top 30 prospects, Greg Zumach had this to say regarding Palencia:

Report: No one in the organization can throw a fastball like Daniel Palencia. It is truly elite and probably the only 80-grade I have ever given to a tool. The fastball has excellent ride and upper tier velocity. Currently he’s starting and I would expect that to continue into 2023, but if he had to move to relief, it’s an MLB caliber arsenal right away.
Greg Zumach
Oct 2, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The Chicago Cubs wave to the fans after the last home game
Oct 2, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The Chicago Cubs wave to the fans after the last home game / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

3 breakout candidates - 1. Porter Hodge

Last but not least we come to one of my favorite prospects in the Cubs organization, Porter Hodge. Drafted out of high school in the 13th round of the 2019 draft, Hodge got to work in the Arizona league thereafter. He only threw 8 innings and unfortunately, the 2020 season was canceled due to COVID, spending the season between Myrtle Beach and South Bend, the still-just 21-year-old Porter Hodge recorded pretty electric numbers. Starting with the particulars, Hodge notched 109.1 innings this year between both leagues, recording a 2.63 combined ERA. More importantly, though, he got better once he got to South Bend at a higher level.

In South Bend alone, Hodge recorded a minuscule 2.01 ERA in 40.1 frames over the course of 7 starts and 8 appearances. His combination of fastball, slider and change-up allowed him to punch out 141 batters which were good for an 11.6 K/9 on the season. I do think the fact that he stepped up and got better at a higher level could technically mean he just had a breakout season, but I think there's a lot more in store for Hodge. In my opinion, his ceiling is one of the highest within the whole Cubs organization. He didn't really have a single terrible outing in South Bend.

Next. 3 Rule 5 Prospects to keep an eye on. dark

There's currently not that much to knock on Hodge's game. All we can really do is wait to see where he goes from here. Given how quickly he adjusted to a higher level of talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see more of the same should he be promoted. As stated above, I want you to keep in mind that Hodge lost a full year of development due to the pandemic in 2020 (as did every minor leaguer). At just 21 years old, being on the fringe to start at Double-A Tennessee already speaks incredible volumes about his potential. Even if he does stay in South Bend to start the year, I don't see it being long before he moves up the ladder.

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