Cubs' poor two-month stretch early in the year looms larger than ever in September

For the second time in as many years, all signs point to the Chicago Cubs winding up just outside the postseason picture. That's not to say they're completely dead in the water, but with postseason odds sitting between 1 and 3 percent, prayers and a ton of good luck are their best remaining weapons.

Chicago enters Friday's opener in Colorado five out in the NL wild-card picture, chasing both the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves for the final spot in the playoff field. Keep in mind, the Cubs are on the wrong end of the tiebreaker with both teams, which further hampers their chances of pulling off a miracle.

The frustrating part is that this team has played well down the stretch. Since the All-Star Break, Craig Counsell's Cubs are 28-20, including a scorching 18-8 mark in August. Last weekend's series against the New York Yankees at Wrigley could have gone better, but Chicago rebounded to take two of three against the Dodgers in LA, giving them a split of the six-game stretch squaring off against a pair of Fall Classic contenders.

Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to amaze on a nightly basis and has a .945 OPS over the last month and Shota Imanaga is as reliable as ever (2.53 ERA over his last five starts), and the main offensive threats in the lineup are making opposing pitchers pay for their mistakes. Porter Hodge has locked down a ninth-inning role that was a glaring weakness earlier in the year and things have leveled off as the season's worn on.

The problem, again, is the early hole the Cubs put themselves in.

Over May and June, Chicago went 21-34 as the offense looked toothless, regardless of where or who they played. A bad series turned into a bad few weeks, which wound up in a multi-month stretch of baseball where nothing seemed to go the Cubs' way. It's not impossible to dig out of a hole like that, but it's not particularly easy, either, especially when the teams you're chasing pick up steam, as well.

The New York Mets, in particular, have been sizzling of late, going 8-2 to open September, setting up a high-stakes showdown with the division rival Braves down the stretch. A 31-20 record in the second half trumps even the improved mark of the Cubs, who are close to, yet again, falling short of punching a ticket to October.

Chicago will keep fighting and isn't throwing in the towel just yet. But the simple truth is that the damage done during their early-summer swoon may prove to be their undoing, regardless of their significant turnaround during the back half of the year.