The Chicago Cubs are heading to Cleveland to play the Guardians in what feels like an important three-game set for both clubs. Chicago Tribune's Meghan Montemurro posted the Cubs rotation planned for the series, which includes Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon.
That's noteworthy because it means Kyle Hendricks is getting skipped. The Cubs were off Thursday and Sunday, with Hendricks' last start coming back on Aug. 5 (last Monday) against the Twins.
Earlier in the year, this would seem like a no-brainer. However the latest trends do show a more effective Hendricks and a struggling Assad. The overall season numbers still look better in favor of Assad (3.24 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 4.59 FIP and 7.9 K/9) over Hendricks (6.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5.30 FIP and 6.4 K/9), what is interesting is looking over their last 11 appearances dating back to late May/early June.
- Assad - last 11 appearances (49.2 IP): 4.89 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 44 strikeouts, 27 walks, .378 OBP against
- Hendricks - last 11 appearances (52 IP): 4.50 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 35 strikeouts, 12 walks, .291 OBP against
What is striking here, and it's no surprise to anyone who has watched the team, is that Hendricks has had much better command while Assad has struggled with it recently. We have seen the high pitch counts early and the need to work around a lot of traffic. Assad has done a good job this year with men in scoring position against him, but that traffic adds up.
Meanwhile, after Hendricks got off to a horrific start, he has looked like a decent five-starter over the past few months. With where he is in his career and his arsenal, a low-mid 4.00 ERA and FIP and going around five innings at the bottom of the rotation is all you can ask for. It keeps the team in the game.
It's a toss-up when looking at Kyle Hendricks, Javier Assad right now
Credit Assad for being able to make a lot of things work throughout the season, though it did feel inevitable that the numbers were going to come around a bit. His FIP suggested as much for awhile now - and he was never a guy who was going to carry a sub-3.00 ERA all year long. Still, he has been able to buckle down in big moments and keep things from going awry for the most part. Plus to be fair he was rushed back from an injury in mid-July which seems to have been a challenge.
Is this to say Assad is simply a bad pitcher and cannot be trusted? No. I do think it's fair to say his future is probably a long relief and swing-man role where he can start some games and come out of the pen. He has been able to maximize his impact with what he has, which is worth giving him his flowers. As for Hendricks, this is probably his last stretch run with the Cubs but he has at least rebounded and kept the team in games for the most part even if he is still not near the guy he once was.
We will see how the rest of the season shapes up for both of them. While credit is given to Hendricks for bouncing back, there are still matchups for him that are not ideal and blowups can still happen. Assad has already started more games this year than the rest of his big league career combined, so he will have to dig deep to finish the season strong.