Revisiting Cody Bellinger's player option following new Matt Chapman contract

Matt Chapman signed a six-year contract extension with the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday and it seems like an appropriate time to see where things stand between the Chicago Cubs and Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger signed a three-year deal with the Cubs last February worth $80MM. Within the deal, Bellinger can exercise a player opt-out after both this season and next season. It's important to note that Bellinger is set to earn $27.5MM in 2025, and $25MM in 2026 if he does not exercise his opt-out clauses.

It's a decision that will define the Cubs' offseason.

If Bellinger doesn't opt out after this season, it muddies the water for how the Cubs can improve their offense this offseason. Not to mention, it's $27.5MM less that the Cubs will have at their disposal during the winter. If Bellinger does choose to opt out, it opens a clearer path for the Cubs to find offensive improvement with an additional $27.5MM coming off the books.

Entering play on Friday, Bellinger had a slash line of .267/.325/.424 through 483 plate appearances with a 107 wRC+. This is a decent-sized regression from his 2023 season when he posted a 135 wRC+. The biggest reason for the regression in 2024 has been the power, as Bellinger, prior to the game against the Yankees on Friday, had 15 home runs after having 26 last season.

Short of Bellinger having a power surge during the closing weeks of the season, it seems that the trend may be toward the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year returning to the Cubs next season because he does not exercise his opt-out clause. Let's be clear, if Bellinger opts out, the Cubs aren't prioritizing his return as they did last offseason. The smart gamble for Bellinger and Boras would be to take the guaranteed $27.5MM and see if the power returns in 2025. If not, or even if Bellinger has an injury-riddled season, there's the protection of the $25MM in 2026.