Chicago Cubs Top Prospects: Midseason Top 30 Chicago Cubs Prospects (#5-1)

The Chicago Cubs have a solid minor league system that features legit star power, high ceiling/low-floor guys, and high-floor/low-ceiling guys. The system isn’t top heavy, it’s deep and there are more than 30 guys that could have made this list, but these are the 30 guys that I believe are:

1. Most likely to make an impact on the major league squad
2. May be less likely to make the league, but if they do they have legit star power.

So far this week we’ve broken down:

The 30th-21st best prospects

The 20th-11th best prospects

The 10th- 6th best prospects

And without further adieu, here is the 5th best prospect in the Chicago Cubs minor league system:

Number 5

Ben Brown RHP

Age: 23 Years Old

Level: AAA Iowa Cubs 

Joined the organization via: David Robertson Trade with Philadelphia Phillies

2023 Stats: 75.0 IP 3.96 ERA 113/40 K/BB

Ben Brown was our choice for the best pitcher of the first half at AAA Iowa. He struggled mightily in June and July (prior to the All-Star Break) but he came back this week and was absolutely dominant. 

I don’t know how many times I’ve referenced the need the Cubs have for power pitchers and power hitters in this list. It’s something that Jed Hoyer has said, and it’s something that Cubs fans know. While there hasn’t been much done at the major league level to address those concerns (signing Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Jameson Taillon notwithstanding), but it’s something the Cubs have done in the draft and the trade market over the last two seasons.

At the trade deadline last season, the Phillies spoiled us by sending Ben Brown for a 37-year-old David Robertson that had pitched 40 innings and collected 14 saves at that point. They got a solid player for what would be a World Series run, and the Cubs potentially got a cornerstone piece of their rotation for years to come. 

When Brown can limit the walks (he’s averaging more than 5.5 BB/9 in AAA) he is the best pitcher in the system and it’s not close. Unfortunately, that’s something that has been very hit or miss since he got promoted from AA Tennessee and is likely the only thing that has prevented him from being called up to replace Drew Smyly in the rotation during this rough patch.

If the Cubs do sell in the next couple of weeks be prepared to see Brown make his debut. By the end of the 2024 season, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see a rotation that features Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon as the veteran presence with Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, and Caleb Kilian/Jordan Wicks all getting an opportunity to learn at the major league level. 

Number 4

Matt Shaw SS

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: N/A

Joined the organization via: 1st Round Pick in 2023 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: (College) .341/.445/.697 24 HR, 20 2B, 18 SB, 69 RBI, 80 R, 43/42 BB/K

We’ve written extensively about Matt Shaw this year. You can find our thoughts about him prior to the draft here, and our thoughts after he was drafted here. What I can tell you is that we really like Matt Shaw. Not only did the Cubs make the statistically smart choice by drafting the college hitter, they chose a really solid up-the-middle college hitter that should make it to the majors in a short period of time.

The thing you see all the time is “Don’t worry about positions, it’ll work itself out.” That’s true to an extent, but the Cubs have Nico Hoerner locked up through 2026 and have Dansby Swanson locked up well beyond that so it doesn’t appear that there is an easy path playing time at either second base or shortstop in the near future.

When you look at the scouting reports for Shaw there are questions about his arm for third base but there was an interesting argument made on “On To Waveland” the Cubs podcast at the Athletic when they said that as long as his arm is stronger than Nick Madrigal (who was playing a perfectly acceptable third base prior to his injury) then he will be totally fine at the hot corner and most scouts agree that it is.

If we work under the assumption that Shaw has the capability of playing third base defensively then we only need to worry about whether or not the bat will play at the major league level and I don’t see any reason to believe it wouldn’t. He hits for average and hits for power while stealing bases and he’s done it with a wooden bat on the Cape where he was named MVP. 

Shaw is one of the rare names on this list that offers both floor and ceiling. He’s someone that I see as at least an MLB regular and at best an all-star caliber third baseman and he has the ability to start reaching that potential as early as midway through the 2024 MLB season. 

Number 3

Jackson Ferris LHP

Age: 19 Years Old

Level: A Myrtle Beach

Joined the organization via: 2nd Round Pick in 2022 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 31.0 IP 3.19 ERA 40/16 K/BB

Jackson Ferris is not the best player in the Cubs system but he is my favorite. Years ago the Cubs drafted Kyle Schwarber in the first round and in doing so saved enough money to be able to draft prep pitchers Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease. I’m not going to sit here and say that when the Cubs drafted Cade Horton last year and signed him under the slot and used that money to sign prep pitchers Nazier Mule and Jackson Ferris is the exact same thing, but it has the potential to be.

Ferris has been as dominant as any player in the system, albeit against lesser competition at Myrtle Beach. He’s struggled with the walks in his last couple of starts and the Cubs are treating him with kid gloves a little bit as his average appearance has lasted less than three innings, but when they’ve let him loose he’s been extremely impressive. 

I understand that there are a lot of people that will use the fact that a Low-A pitcher is ranked higher on this list than two guys knocking on the door at AAA to invalidate it, but this is an instance of star power outweighing a high floor. If we look at the best-case scenario for guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks, etc. I see middle of the rotation on a division-winning team or a number two on a solid wild-card team. 

When I look at Jackson Ferris I see a guy that could be a legitimate ace, someone that has the possibility to not only be the best pitcher in our system but potentially the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball and anchor a staff that is World Series bound. 

He is not close to reaching that potential right now. He may never get to that potential because his arm could fall off. However, when I look at this system there is one player that jumps off of the page every time I see him and it’s Jackson Ferris. 

Number 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong OF

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: AA Tennessee Smokies

Joined the organization via: Javier Baez Trade with New York Mets

2023 Stats: .283/.360/.506 11 HR, 17 2B, 5 3B, 23 SB, 55 RBI, 59 R

Like I said with Alcantara, if Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t in this system, Alcantara would be the top player in the organization. That’s not necessarily specific to Alcantara though because I’m not sure I could count five prospects in all of baseball that I’d rather have than PCA. 

Crow-Armstrong is hitting for average and power this season with 23 stolen bases while playing above-average defense in center field. He was named to the MLB Futures Game and he’s shown his ability to hit in clutch situations with multiple walk-off hits so far already this season. I’m not sure what else he has to do to earn the call-up to AAA Iowa but it could come at any moment. 

He has legit 20/20 potential considering his plus bat speed and his plus footspeed on the bases and I wouldn’t put it against him to reach that plateau several times in his career. 

Crow-Armstrong is in a difficult position. He’s the top prospect and the first Cubs prospect in the MLB top-ten since the World Series winning crop came through years ago. Matt Mervis has already experienced what it’s like to have that level of expectation attached to your debut, but Crow-Armstrong has it even tougher because not only is he a top prospect but he’ll be replacing a gold-glove/silver-slugger/former MVP center fielder in Cody Bellinger.

There is a chance that the moment will be too big for him whenever he does get that call to the majors, but if there’s anyone in the system that will be able to handle it, I’d bet on him. The tangibles are impressive but the intangibles are even more so and he has the ability to join Dansby Swanson at the major league level as the leaders in the clubhouse on what should be a very good complete Cubs team at the mid-point of the 2024 season.

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