Chicago Cubs Top Prospects: Midseason Top 30 Chicago Cubs Prospects (#20-11)

The Chicago Cubs have a solid minor league system that features legit star power, high ceiling/low floor guys, and high floor/low ceiling guys. The system isn’t top heavy, it’s deep and there are more than 30 guys that could have made this list, but these are the 30 guys that I believe are:

1. Most likely to make an impact on the major league squad
2. Maybe less likely to make the league, but if they do they have legit star power.

Earlier this week we looked at the 30th-21st best prospect in the system and later this week we’ll look at the Top 10 prospects. However, until then, here is the 20th best prospect in the Chicago Cubs minor league system. 

Number 20 

Ezequiel Pagan OF

Age: 22 Years Old

Level: A+ South Bend Cubs

Joined the organization via: 13th Round Pick in 2018 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: .322/.390/.421 3 HR, 10 2B, 7 SB, 20 RBI, 26 R 

Ezequiel Pagan is an ideal fourth outfielder. There are some guys on this list that don’t have the ceilings to be All-Stars or Silver Sluggers, but not everyone needs to be that and when players have that potential the floor can be pretty low as well. Pagan is a high-floor, low-ceiling type player and that has value.

Mike Tauchman is a player that most Cubs fans had never heard of coming into this season. Now, he’s been the jolt that the team has needed and has worked himself into a leadoff role while playing solid outfield defense. Can he be that guy on a playoff/championship caliber team? Probably not. On that team, he’d likely be a fourth outfielder, like Pagan, capable of impacting the game with his bat and solid approach at the plate.

The fact that Pagan hasn’t been promoted despite his hot start so far this season tells me he’s not a realistic option to make it to Wrigley prior to the 2025 season, but he’s still a very usable player when we get to that point. 

Number 19

DJ Herz LHP

Age: 22 Years Old

Level: AA Tennessee Smokies

Joined the organization via: 8th Round Pick in 2019 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 49.0 IP 4.59 ERA 63/32 K/BB

Since DJ Herz joined the system back in 2019 he’s started every game he’s played in. He’s carrying a career 3.92 ERA across four levels at the minors with 13.1 K/9 and he’s only getting better as he goes. When he came into the organization, he primarily used a fastball and curveball but he’s implemented a changeup which MLB Pipeline declares is “his best pitch” and because he has struggled throwing the curveball for strikes he’s started to use a slider instead.

Based on the organizational process it stands to reason that Herz will continue to be progressed with starting in mind. If he finishes the season in Double-A this year and begins next year in Triple-A he could be in Wrigley by the end of the 2024 season, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see that slider become the sweeper that the pitching coaches seem to love and he will have a three-pitch mix that can get major league hitters out while decreasing the walks which have been a problem thus far in his career. 

Number 18

Haydn McGeary 1B

Age: 23 Years Old

Level: AA Tennessee Smokies

Joined the organization via: 15th Round Pick in 2022 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: .301/.415/.487 12 HR, 17 2B, 5 SB, 60 RBI, 43 R

Haydn McGeary didn’t get much love coming out of a small college as a catcher/first baseman that we all knew wouldn’t stick behind the dish. That being said, he impressed at Rookie ball and in Myrtle Beach before starting the year in South Bend and being promoted to Tennessee. He’s hitting for average and power alike, while not being a detriment on the base paths. He’s the kind of player that legitimately could get a shot at the major league level, especially if the Cubs can’t figure out a solution at first base.

Pedigree matters until it doesn’t. If McGeary had been a first round pick out of Florida and putting up these numbers he’d be a top-100 prospect in baseball and a top-10 prospect in the system. However, because the track record and the competition level leave something to be desired there are people that view these statistics as flukey.

I’m betting on the opposite and I truly believe that if the Cubs don’t bring in other first base options going into next season he could be in the 2024 season what Matt Mervis was this season in that he could get the call to the majors very early to start next year and get a chance to prove what he’s got. 

Number 17 

Michael Arias RHP

Age: 21 Years Old

Level: A+ South Bend Cubs

Joined the organization via: Free Agent Signing in 2021

2023 Stats: 53.2 IP 2.85 ERA 77/31 K/BB

Michael Arias may not be my favorite prospect in the system, but he’s absolutely my favorite story in the system. Arias was shortstop when he was signed and subsequently released by the Blue Jays organization as an international free agent. The Cubs believed in the arm and signed him and he’s paying significant dividends this year as he’s already been promoted.

Arias has the exact problems that you would expect from a player that is relatively new to pitching and is more of a thrower at this point. He’s walking more batters (5.2 BB/9) than you’d like to see but he’s striking out batters at an equally impressive clip (12.9 K/9). 

I’ve referenced this before, but the Cubs moved Daniel Palencia, Porter Hodge and others to the pen earlier this season to try to help the major league bullpen as soon as possible. They could have made that move for Arias as well, but they didn’t which tells me they believe in his ability to stick as a starter.

The Cubs seriously lack power pitchers that have starter potential and if Arias can be that kind of guy he could be a top-ten prospect in the system by the end of the 2024 season and a guy competing for a rotation spot going into the 2025 season. 

Number 16

Pablo Aliendo C

Age: 22 Years Old

Level: AA Tennessee Smokies

Joined the organization via: IFA Signing in 2018

2023 Stats: .240/.333/.480 11 HR, 14 2B, 3 SB, 34 RBI, 29 R

Pablo Aliendo is not the prospect that Miguel Amaya was. He may not end up being more than a second catcher on a division-winning team. That being said, what he’s shown this year at Double-A is a propensity to hit for significant power. He’s carrying a .240 ISO this year and that’s a playable number at any level.

The 11 homers he has this season are almost as many as he had in 2021 and 2022 combined, which some may see as an outlier but I see as him accessing the raw power he hadn’t in the past. Baseball fans know that catcher is the most defensively intensive position on the baseball diamond and that can lead the bat to lag behind other players in terms of progression as they work on their defense. 

If Aliendo finishes this season at Double-A with 18-20 homers and starts next year at Iowa he could find himself operating in a third catcher role at Wrigley by the end of the season and the Cubs could open the 2025 season with two young, cost-controlled, high upside catchers in their World Series run. 

Number 15

Drew Gray LHP

Age: 20 Years Old

Level: A Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Joined the organization via: 3rd Round Pick in 2021 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 15.1 IP 2.93 ERA 22/13 K/BB

After a lost 2022, Drew Gray had some rust to knock off in his first couple of starts this season. I’m definitely the highest on Gray in comparison to outlets like Fangraphs and MLB.com on Gray, but there’s a lot to like. For starters, even in high school before joining the instructional league, he was already utilizing two breaking balls with a curveball and a slider. MLB.com claims that he was developing a slider when he blew out his elbow which would have added a fourth pitch to the mix.

The nature of drafting prep pitchers is that there is just so much runway for them to fall apart and never end up being anything at any level much less the major league level. That’s a possibility with Gray, but because he already has a good fastball, two breaking pitches, a developing changeup, and a projectable frame I have a hard time not putting some hope into him.

He’s definitely going to need to get the walks under control, but the stuff is incredible. The Cubs proved in the draft this year that they truly believe in their pitching development when they drafted a couple of college arms with pretty significant warts, and if they think they can turn those guys into stars then Gray could get the same treatment and he’s younger and more skilled than any pitcher the Cubs drafted this year. 

Number 14

Derniche Valdez SS

Age: 17 Years Old

Level: Rookie Ball

Joined the organization via: IFA Signing in 2023

2023 Stats: .228/.366/.491 4 HR, 3 2B 3 SB, 13 RBI, 11 R

I’ve got a hard time not getting excited when I see these uber young, uber talented prospects. They could absolutely fall flat. Kevin Maitan was supposed to be the end all-be all (to the point that the Braves cheated to sign him), and then so were Yadier Alvarez, Lazaro (Lazarito) Armenteros, Julio Pablo Martinez, Victor Victor Mesa and even Yoan Moncada have disappointed. 

That being said, Valdez is extremely interesting. I wrote something up on him earlier this week, but to sum all of that up a little more, he’s a little guy that should stick at short and he’s already getting to his raw power seemingly easily. I mentioned Aliendo’s ISO of .240 being impressive, but Valdez’s .263 ISO is even more impressive. Basically what it means, is when he’s hitting the ball, he’s hitting the ball hard.

It’s nice when guys are hitting for power at Double-A or Triple-A. But even though it’s only at Rookie ball, Valdez is only 17 years old. If he made it to Low-A this season and spent a full season subsequently at High-A, Double-A or Triple-A he’d be in the majors at the age of 21. Anything can happen to derail that, but anything can happen to make it happen even faster. Valdez is a guy with legit star-power that Cubs fans should absolutely be excited about. 

Number 13

Jefferson Rojas SS

Age: 18 Years Old

Level: A Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Joined the organization via: IFA Signing in 2022

2023 Stats: .259/.331/.384 2 HR, 8 2B, 2 SB, 14 RBI, 20 R

Jefferson Rojas is walking the walk that we’d love to see Valdez follow, and he’s the guy that falls in between guys like Valdez and Alexis Hernandez and a guy like Cristian Hernandez who has a little more prospect clout even though he's older at the same level. Rojas is 18 and he won’t turn 19 until the end of April next season so he’s a legit 18. He hasn’t gotten to his power in the same way that Valdez has been able to to start his career but he’s much more known for his defense than he is for the bat anyway.

I always think back to Francisco Lindor when I think about players like Rojas. If you have the glove to get you to the majors, a lot of times the bat can catch up and the really good players can make adjustments over time and become at least average hitters. It’s not something that people like to think about, but when you have a guy that’s uncomfortable in the field (which he will play significantly more often than he will bat) it seeps into their heads and impacts their ability to be successful with the bat. Having a guy that’s comfortable in the field alleviates that concern and Rojas projects to be at least a solid defender even if the bat continues to lag behind. 

It will be interesting to see Rojas and Hernandez grow together and see if they can develop a double-play tandem that eventually makes its way to Wrigley and if everything goes right that could happen as soon as the start of the 2026 season. 

Number 12

Alexander Canario OF

Age: 23 Years Old

Level: AAA Iowa Cubs

Joined the organization via: Kris Bryant Trade with San Francisco Giants

2023 Stats: .244/.359/.346 1 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 13 RBI, 13 R

The stats are misleading as Alexander Canario has missed almost all of this season due to a freak injury in the winter leagues. However across three leagues in 2022 Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and another 28 extra-base hits. He’s a legitimate old-school power-hitting corner outfielder in a way that the major league squad desperately needs.

If Canario can be that player again he absolutely projects to be a 30-homer threat at the major league level. He’s only recently turned 23 years old and could push his way onto the roster in Chicago by the end of this season or the start of the 2024 season. 

The Cubs obviously believe in Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki enough to have them locked up through the 2026 season so there’s a little bit of a problem with Canario’s defensive positioning, but the bat can carry the DH spot as well with relative ease. If this list had been made at the end of last season Canario could have been a top-five prospect but the injury along with the delayed results returning from that injury are a little scary. Hopefully he finishes the season strong and asuages those fears.