Chicago Cubs Rumors: Three fallback 1B targets this offseason

We've heard all the rumors by now that the Chicago Cubs have been pretty active on all fronts of the free-agent market. Being tied to pitchers, short stops, first basemen, catchers, and even centerfielders that have recently been made available. All are great places to start if you want to compete in 2023. However, a team that has several players at the top of its wish list understands that they won't hit on every one of those targets and therefore needs to have backup options penciled into that list just in case.

We know the Cubs have reached out regarding Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, and Trey Mancini. Though no other word has been released of who the Cubs might be after if they miss on those three, there are a few prominent names to at least explore and be familiar with if the Cubs have to think outside the box for this one. We know the Cubs want a right-handed bat to platoon with Matt Mervis to ease him into everyday life at the MLB level. That being said, let's take a look at three backup options at 1B should the Cubs miss on their primary targets.

First base option #1: Jesus Aguilar

Diving right into an old division rival, Jesus Aguilar. After signing a one-year deal worth 7.5MM with the Miami Marlins last year, Aguilar wasn't quite able to get into a rhythm in South Beach. Before being traded to the Baltimore Orioles, Aguilar slashed just .236/.286/.388 during his time with Miami and that number further slid upon his arrival to Baltimore, where his slash line dropped slightly further to .224/.240/.306. However, along with 2019, This is the worst mark of Aguilar's career and there's room to be optimistic here once you start to break things down.

You never should look at a free agent and think to yourself "Wow, this guy had a terrible year. That means he's terrible". No, absolutely not. From 2017-2021, Aguilar's slashed .263/.338/.476 with 25 HR and 92 RBIs per 162-game average. His best season came in 2018 when he earned All-Star honors while hitting 35 HRs and 108 RBIs in the process. With the proper protection around him, Aguilar can be a beast offensively. The only thing separating him from being one of the more sought-after first basemen is the fact that he had a down year in 2022.

Looking ahead, however, there's an easy-to-understand belief that batting averages will spike across the league next year with the banning of the shift. Looking at guys like Aguilar's advanced stats and sabermetrics shows you a nearly 40% career hard-hit rate, which will be the key for some of these sluggers to lace one through the hole for a base hit that would otherwise be hit into the shift. With that being said, Aguilar should be a prime candidate for a comeback season, especially if he has protection around him in the lineup.

First base option #2: Yuli Gurriel

Another candidate who suffered a down 2022 but has mostly been successful is former Astros first baseman, Yuli Gurriel. Over the course of his 7-year career, Gurriel has slashed a respectable .284/328/.448 during his tenure in Houston. In three of those seasons, he recorded over 80 RBIs, including one where he hit 31 HRs and drove in 104. Though Gurriel batted just .242 in 2022, given his track record, I think it's safe to say he's been a professional enough hitter that one down year shouldn't really make you assume he just can't hit anymore.

Gurriel actually batted .232 during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, then bounced back last year with a line of .319/.383/.462 which led the American League in batting average. So, here's a perfect example of a player that you shouldn't assume can't have an incredibly successful season after a down year at the plate. He more than likely won't hit over 20 HR again, but to plug a guy even towards the end of the lineup who can notch an OBP of over .340 is solid production.

Should the Cubs go all in on Gurriel? Of course not. He's just not necessarily a bad backup option if you miss on other targets ahead of him. Personally, you can probably peg him around 5th on a list of available first basemen. Still, he is a professional hitter who gets on base and can help any lineup. Not every team has a glaring need at first base, so the Cubs falling the way to Gurriel may seem a bit unrealistic, and hopefully so, but if it comes to that, I'm not exactly angry with the decision at least. He is a plus defender as well, proven by his Gold Glove in 2021. If he can still swing it, it's worth it on a 2-year deal.

First base option #3: Evan Longoria

Last but not least and admittedly probably farther down the list than the Cubs will have to go, we land on Evan Longoria. Nevertheless, we should still explore all options in a just-in-case type of scenario. Longoria had a down year at the plate with a mark of just .244/.315/.451, .021 points below his career average. He is still capable you giving you slashes of .265/.334/.472 but hasn't really had that monster year since 2016 when he batted .273 with 36 HR and 98 RBIs.

Though Longoria has always primarily been a third baseman, he did shift over and get reps at first and if he is willing to continue doing so, should probably at least draw some more interest by adding a little versatility to his resume. Longoria will be going into his age-37 season, so it's doubtful he commands any type of long-term contract here. It's not the type of scenario you want to see the Cubs have to end up with, but at the very least they wouldn't be stuck with anything long-term.

If Longoria can recapture some of that magic in a new ballpark, particularly a hitter-friendly one such as Wrigley Field, then there is obvious value there. Longoria had his 2023 option declined by the San Francisco Giants for 13.0MM this winter and there isn't much reason to believe his AAV will be anywhere near that moving forward. If he can hit for average, he can be a decent bat at the end of a lineup He is available if the Cubs need somebody, but hopefully, they wind up with one of their top targets anyway.