Chicago Cubs Rumors: The trade deadline has passed, what does free agency look like?

The Chicago Cubs shocked the baseball world by not only refusing to sell at the trade deadline but having the audacity to be buyers of arguably the best hitter available. The Cubs are not giving up, they’re going for it in a relatively big way and I know everyone is excited to see how the rest of the season is going to play out (hopefully with a playoff berth). 

That being said, this team is built for the present and the future, and as exciting as the present is, I can’t help but dream about the future. This team is stellar. It’s so stellar in fact that I wrote a piece yesterday stating that this team has the exact kind of skillset to make a deep playoff run. But in the words of Pedro Pascal in Wonder Woman 1984: It could be better.

This article is going to try to focus on areas of perceived need for the Cubs. We aren’t going to talk about a shortstop that could be a match, because Dansby Swanson has given us $177 million reasons not to focus on that position. There are a couple of targets that you’ll have to squint to see as a fit, but at the end of the day, if the Cubs are able to keep the current roster intact and add even one or two of the guys on this list, they’re legitimate World Series contenders.

Position One: First Base

Players available (alphabetically):

Josh Bell
Cody Bellinger
Jeimer Candelario
CJ Cron
Rhys Hoskins

There are a handful of options here. If the Cubs make a run and choose to keep both Candelario and Bellinger, I know a majority of Cubs’ fans would be on board with that choice. The problem with that is the dollars that would have to be allocated in order to make that happen and the fact that playing either at first base detrimentally impacts the value that they add as defensive fielders at their primary positions. 

Josh Bell certainly doesn’t have a defensive position where he’d be considered an asset. He’s been a negative defensive WAR player every season he’s played and he’s carrying a whopping -9.0 career dWAR. That’s truly terrible. That being said, you’d be paying for the bat where he’s a career .259/.347/.451 hitter with an average of 24 homers per 162 games played. That’s the kind of pop that the Cubs have been looking for from a corner infielder, but I’m not positive he’s the right fit.

CJ Cron would be the elder statesman from this group as he’ll be going into his age-34 season next year. He’s not as strong of a hitter as Bell, despite providing more power, but he’s also less of a defensive black hole at first base. He’s only had one positive dWAR season in his career but his -4.4 lifetime mark is significantly better than Bell’s -9.0. His average slash line is .260/.321/.473 with an average of 29 homers per 162 games played. 

Rhys Hoskins is one of the more interesting names on this list. He’ll be one of the younger players entering his age-30 season and he’s got more pop than anyone else on the list as he’s had an average of 36 home runs per 162 games played with a .242/.353/.492 slash line. He’s somehow been the worst of all of the defenders at first base that we’ve looked at and the Phillies are unlikely to let him walk unless an overpay occurs, so I have Hoskins firmly as the least likely of all of the candidates.

Decision: Pay Bellinger what he wants. Sell Boras and Bellinger on the fact that he’ll limit his injury risk by playing primarily first base thanks to the existence of two locked-up outfielders and a top prospect in center field just one step from Wrigley. He just turned 28 so if it takes an eight-year, $225 million dollar contract, sign it.

Position Two: Third Base

Players available (alphabetically):

Jeimer Candelario
Matt Chapman
Evan Longoria

Again, the idea of bringing back both Candelario and Cody Bellinger brings a smile to most Cubs fans' faces but the dollars may just not make sense. If that’s the case, the dollars that Matt Chapman has assuredly earned himself may make even less sense, but let’s talk through it and see what the options are.

Candelario fits what the Cubs do right now. He’s a career .244/.326/.414 hitter with 19 homers per 162 games played. He’s a career negative when it comes to dWAR and that profile just doesn’t equate to $20 million per year. I can’t see a world where someone doesn’t offer somewhere in the $15-20 million dollar range for him and the Cubs can’t afford to have that kind of money locked up in Candelario, Hoerner, Swanson, Happ, and Suzuki when none of the five of them project to have 30 home run power. It’s not all about power, but good teams have the ability to win a game or two with one swing and that guy just isn’t on this roster right now.

Chapman can be that power supply. He’s a career .243/.332/.467 hitter with an average of 30 homers per 162 games played and he’s an exceptional defender at third base with a career 11.9 dWAR. He’ll be entering his age-31 season but the idea of putting him in an infield of Gold Glovers like Swanson, Bellinger, Gomes, and potentially Hoerner moving forward is hard to not be excited about. That being said a power-hitting, Gold-Glove defending third baseman isn’t going to come cheap and therefore I’m not sure it makes sense for the Cubs to get involved in this bidding. 

Evan Longoria is the most interesting name on this list. He’s old. He was already 30 when the Cubs won the World Series what feels like 100 years ago. He’ll be entering his age-38 season, but what he’d provide could be invaluable. The Cubs have Nick Madrigal at third base right now, learning the position. They project to potentially have Matt Shaw at some point next season to play third base. Who better to learn from than a career 13.5 dWAR player with a lifetime OPS over .800 and an average of 28 homers per 162 games played over his career?

Decision: Only spend here if you swing and miss on Bellinger, and if you miss on Bellinger swing big at Chapman. However, in a world where Bellinger re-signs then goes after Longoria as a bench bat/clubhouse guy (in the vein of what Eric Hosmer was to start this season) to a modest deal.

Position Four: Starting Pitcher

Players available (alphabetically):

Lucas Giolito
Sonny Gray
Aaron Nola
Shohei Ohtani
Eduardo Rodriguez
Blake Snell
Marcus Stroman
Julio Urias

We’re going to work under the assumption that Marcus Stroman doesn’t re-sign, Drew Smyly doesn’t have his option picked up and Kyle Hendricks does have his option picked up. The Cubs will go into December with an expected rotation of Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Hayden Wesneski, and Ben Brown with those last two rotation spots very much up for grabs.

Lucas Giolito is going to be an expensive player based on name value. There will be people in Chicago that want to see him back, but this time on the North Side but I’m just not seeing the value. He’ll be entering just his age-29 season, but his career-best ERA while pitching 50 or more innings was 3.41. That’s awesome as a three or a four in a good rotation, but he’s going to get ace money and I just can’t abide that kind of money for a pitcher like this that has been coasting off of prospect status for the better part of eight years. 

Sonny Gray is one of my ideal targets this offseason if the Cubs don’t go big for one of Stroman/Urias/Ohtani/Nola. He’s a ground ball pitcher and the Cubs have put together arguably the best infield defense in the league, so let’s play to that strength. He’s currently making around $16 million with the Twins and I’d expect him to sign a deal for an equivalent amount due to his advanced age being offset by his All-Star status this season. Plugging him in with Taillon and Steele gives the Cubs three guys that would be third in the rotation on really good teams and would be second in the rotation on mediocre teams. I wouldn’t say any of them are aces, but having three guys of that caliber would be huge.

Aaron Nola will be expensive. He’s been a fine pitcher for the last nine seasons and he’ll enter his age-31 season expecting to get the big payday. If he’s smart, he’ll wait it out and sign after Ohtani and Urias have signed so that he and Stroman can split hairs over which of them is the best remaining starter. The money that it would take to sign Nola likely wouldn’t be too different from what it would take to sign Stroman, so the homer in me says to save the money and go with Stroman over Nola.

There’s not much to say about Shohei Ohtani that isn’t already known. If you have watched him play and you don’t say that he’s the best baseball player of all time then you’re wrong. I hesitate to throw out statements like that often, but if you believe Mike Trout or anyone prior to 1950 had more of an impact on a baseball game than someone that threw a one-hitter in the first half of a doubleheader and then came back to hit two homers in the second half then you can stop reading now. That being said, the rumors are that Ohtani wants to be a winner on the West Coast and at the moment the Cubs don’t check those boxes.

Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Snell are in the same monetary areas as Stroman and Nola but they come with a little more risk due to injury history. The biggest thing they have in common is that both of them have pitched exceptionally well this season as they’re on their way to free agency. If the Cubs swing and miss at Stroman and Nola, I find myself liking E-Rod slightly more than Snell because he managed to shut down the Dodgers' attempt to add him at the deadline with just an hour left for the Dodgers to find another alternative which is legendary. 

The final player available would be the second most attractive realistic target the Cubs could go after which is Julio Urias. He just turned 27, so he’s the youngest player on this list because he started playing for the Dodgers in 2016 at age 19. He’s carried a career 3.08 ERA, he’s left-handed and his stuff is absolutely filthy. If the Dodgers add Shohei they’ll likely be out on Urias which opens the door for everyone else to add a legit young(ish) ace.

Decision: In the best-case scenario, the Cubs add Shohei Ohtani and start flying the World Series flags. However, a more realistic case is that they add Julio Urias and Sonny Gray and go into next season with a rotation of Urias, Steele, Gray, Taillon, and Hendricks. That would likely take a $200+ million dollar investment in Urias and at least a three-year $48 million dollar commitment to Gray. The Cubs are in the third-largest market in the United States, they’re allowed to spend. Let’s do this. 

Position Five: Relief Pitcher

Players available (alphabetically):

Josh Hader
Jordan Hicks
Noah Syndergaard

This is an area that you’ll have to squint a little bit to get an idea of what I’m thinking. There’s really only one guy out of this list of three that intrigues me enough to want to spend more than about $6 million per year to bring him to the North Side and I’d imagine all of them will sign between $8-12 per year. 

Josh Hader is obviously a monster. There’s nothing not to like about him and he would absolutely represent a dominant closer to add to this roster and make it evident to the rest of the league that the Cubs are legitimate players. That being said, this is not MLB: The Show and there are consequences to our actions. If the Cubs sign a big-money closer it will detrimentally impact Adbert Alzolay and while we’d see an improvement from the closer position (even the biggest homers among us need to be able to recognize that Hader is superior to Alzolay), we would have to pay a premium for a modest upgrade while also seeing a likely decline in Alzolay’s play I don’t think that investment would be worth it.

Jordan Hicks would be an interesting signing if for no other reason than to finally give the Cardinals a taste of their own medicine. Chicago could bring in a guy that Cardinals’ fans had as the closer of the future for years and have him pump 100-MPH fastballs by their hitters on their way to another division title. That being said, he’d likely be looking for $8-12 million dollars annually and I don’t trust his ability to keep it in the zone with consistency so I’d pass on him as well.

There are a lot of things working against this move. Noah Syndergaard is not a relief pitcher (right now). He’s still relatively highly regarded due to name value and that may come with a large price tag. On top of all of that, he’s been objectively bad. He’s not the guy that was supposed to be part of the Mets rotation of domination with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zach Wheeler, and Steven Matz. However, maybe he could be if he changed his role. If the Cubs looked into using him as a setup man leading into Alzolay and he was able to pitch an inning at a time perhaps the triple digits may appear on the radar gun again.

Decision: Let’s use the same mentality as last offseason and not spend heavily on the bullpen. No thank you to Josh Hader or Jordan Hicks, but let’s try to reclaim Noah Syndergaard on a one-year $8 million dollar contract and see what he can do.

TLDR; Overall Free Agency Haul:

C- N/A 

1B- Cody Bellinger (8 Years $225 million, $28.125 million AAV)

2B- N/A

SS- N/A

3B- Evan Longoria (1 Year $3.5 million)

OF/DH- Joey Gallo (1 Year $8 million)

SP- Julio Urias (6 Years $240 million, $40 million AAV) & Sonny Gray (3 Years $48 million, $16 million AAV)

RP- Noah Syndergaard (1 year $8 million)

Total Free Agent Spending AAV: $103.625 million

Projected 2023 Salaries prior to free agency: $116.75 million

Total 2024 Salaries: $220.375 million

2024 Salary Cap (to stay under luxury tax): $237 million

When you factor in players that are still pre-arbitration as well as in arbitration the Cubs would likely be hovering right at the luxury tax number with just a little bit of flexibility to make a move in season if necessary. Each deal is unlikely in itself, but all of them together are completely unattainable. One thing Cubs fans can do though, is hope…

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