Chicago Cubs Rumors: MLB experts predict FA activity

Earlier in the week, MLB Trade Rumors experts got together and set their predictions for the top 50 free agents available this winter and there was heavy Chicago Cubs' involvement. In total, 9 different players were predicted to sign with the Cubs, which goes to show that most in the industry do believe the team will be having an aggressive approach this offseason. So far, all the Cubs have done is swap minor leaguers with the Tampa Bay Rays, but in mid-November, the winter is far from over. Let's just dive right in and take a look at those players certain experts have going to the Cubs

1. Dansby Swanson (predicted by Steve Adams, Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco of MLBTR)

Not a huge surprise here to see a shortstop linked to the Cubs. However, this is the only one of the four top shortstops that are on the free agent list that the MLB Trade Rumors Experts have signing with the Cubs. As many know, Swanson has been a mainstay with the Atlanta Braves for the duration of this seven-year career. Numbers-wise, Swanson slashes a career .255/.321/.417, but in the last four seasons, has averaged a mark of .261/.325/.444 with 25 homers and 90 RBIs per 162 games played. With elite defense, Swanson won the Gold Glove award in 2022, and, coming off his most productive year at the plate with 25 HR and 96 RBIs, Swanson is in line for a major payday this offseason.

The Braves have stated that Swanson is their priority but did fail in contract negotiation talks during the season. The belief is that it's pretty much Swanson or bust for them as far as the key shortstops go. The Braves have quite a bit more of a payroll crunch on their hands and, if the Cubs wanted to, they could easily outbid the Braves for Swanson. He is projected for 6-7 years in contract length depending on who you ask with an AAV surpassing 20.0M. This mark seems to be right in the Cubs' wheelhouse. It's not expected that the top-tier free agents sign immediately, but this is a name you'll want to keep an eye on.

4. Sean Manaea (predicted by Darragh McDonald of MLBTR)

The second pitcher to make this list and surprisingly someone we haven't heard that much about yet. Sean Manaea really didn't see the success he showed in 2021 when he notched a 3.91 ERA in 179.1 innings pitched over the course of 32 starts. In the first half of 2022, Manaea recorded a 4.11 ERA followed by a 6.44 ERA in the second half. Though he has flashed great stuff at times, I'm not sure he moves the needle in terms of production. It's hard to see much reasoning other than depth for a move such as this. The problem is, the Cubs already have plenty of it.

Aside from Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Hayden Wesneski in a small sample size last season, the Cubs also have guys such as Adrian Sampson and Kyle Hendricks who are all capable of putting up above-average numbers in the rotation. They also have Javier Assad and hopefully Caleb Kilian waiting for a chance to shine as well next season. The Cubs need an ace if they wish to climb the NL Central standings next season. Manaea had a down 2022. He's not a bad pitcher, but he doesn't do much to help a rotation full of guys that all just put up better numbers than him.

5. Andrew Heaney (Predicted by Tim Dierkes of MLBTR)

Another slightly more intriguing option on the list when you dig into the peripherals is Andrew Heaney. Heaney spent the first half of the year recovering from injuries as he was dealing with a combination of shoulder discomfort and shoulder inflammation which limited him to just 14 starts in 72.2 frames with the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. In that time though, he recorded a 3.10 ERA with 110 punchouts. Safe to say this was the best stretch of his entire career. From the years 2016 through 2021, Heaney recorded a combined 4.92 ERA (4.55 FIP). Not sure what it is about pitchers going to Los Angeles and finding a lot of success, but nevertheless, if Heaney can stay healthy he's an interesting option.

Not too sure how keen Jed Hoyer and crew are to adding another southpaw to the rotation with Justin Steele. If they are, then Heaney should be able to find some success in a division that includes the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. Furthermore, the Brewers slashed just .222/.309/.365 collectively as a team against left-handed pitchers this season. So really, another lefty in the rotation going against a weaker division as it is may bring a great deal of success to the Cubs. It's certainly worth taking a flyer on if Heaney can stay healthy, but any drop in production from his time in Los Angeles this season has him sliding back into the "not moving the needle" category.

6. Jose Abreu (predicted by Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald of MLBTR)

You knew it was coming. Jose Abreu's name has been connected to the Cubs heavily in recent weeks. There are a few reasons why I personally love Abreu to the Cubs and I'll explain them all quickly. For one, his projected contract of 2 years in the 40MM range is perfect for a team like the Cubs who won't have to worry about any long-term deal being on the books. For two, Abreu in his career at Wrigley Field has absolutely mashed. He has batted over .300 at Wrigley Field over the span of his career and has been a Cub killer every time he has taken a trip to the north side.

Also, It's good news for Cubs fans that Abreu, or probably anybody for that matter, would like to avoid moving his family to another city if at all possible. Lastly, I love the platoon idea with Matt Mervis as that will allow him to transition into everyday MLB life fluidly while not putting too much strain on Abreu having to play every day as he gets older. Abreu is one of those options that define Jed Hoyer's "intelligent spending." Hopefully, he doesn't go back to Jerry Reinsdorf and the White Sox with an offer hoping to be matched in orderto stay on the southside. The Cubs need to pounce on this.

7. Noah Syndergaard (Predicted by Anthony Franco of MLBTR)

Thor to the Cubbies? I don't necessarily mind it if he can A) stay healthy and B) get back to the 2016-2018 form. During that span, he pitched to the tune of a 2.81 ERA and an even more impressive 2.42 FIP. He also recorded 9.9 strikeouts per 9 innings during that stretch. Since then, Syndergaard from 2019 until the present has recorded a 4.17 ERA (still impressive FIP of 3.72) during his time with the New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, and Philadelphia Phillies.

Syndergaard was a staple of the Mets rotation alongside Jacob deGrom during those prime years in the Big Apple. At only 30 years old, Syndergaard did manage to stay healthy this season after hurling 134.2 innings in total. 2022 was his first complete year back from Tommy John surgery, so if that elbow is ready for a full send, there is a lot of potential there. Personally, I like glancing over the sabermetrics and advanced analytical numbers to measure any upside I can find in a player and I must say I sort of like what I see with Thor here if he does stay healthy. Syndergaard is projected for a 3-year, 36.0MM contract.

8. Zach Eflin (Predicted by Tim Dierkes of MLBTR)

Another starting pitcher in what is becoming a trend of guys that won't be slotted into the top of the rotation, we come to Zach Eflin. Eflin, like Syndergaard before him, has somewhat been a victim of bad luck in the last couple of seasons. His adjusted numbers, according to FIP, don't put him in that elite company category but they do suggest he should be at least a little better than average. For example, in 2022, Eflin recorded a 4.04 ERA but his FIP was almost 50 points lower at just 3.56. The same thing in 2021, he recorded a 4.17 ERA with a FIP of 3.68.

What I don't like to see though is that Eflin hasn't had more than 20 starts in a season since 2019. He also hasn't recorded more than 105.2 innings pitched in a season for the last three years. Granted 2020 was drastically shortened by the pandemic, so I'm not sure how much you can expect him to be able to stretch out right away if you put him into a full-time starting role. If the Cubs look to compete in 2023, a repeat of last year's 75.2 innings of work is not something that is going to be what helps them get there.

9. Carlos Estevez (Predicted by Steve Adams of MLBTR)

Last but not least we land on former Colorado Rockies reliever, Carlos Estevez. Estevez has a career ERA of 5.59 but most of that is from the first two years of his career. In 2022, he notched his best year, posting a 3.47 ERA in relief over the course of 62 appearances and 57 innings pitched. For a reliever, his projection of 3 years and 21MM seems a little high for my taste, unless he was putting up ERA numbers in the high 2.00s to low 3.00s, but nevertheless, he does have enough of a home/away split that we should at least discuss. He has spent his whole career in Coors Field, after all.

On the road, Estevez has recorded a respectable 3.51 ERA over the course of his 6-year career. Back in the Mile High City though, he notched an underwhelming 5.57 ERA. Normally, I wouldn't dive too much more into home/road splits other than analyzing what I see and saying "Okay, he's just not as good on the road" or "He's just bad playing at home in this ballpark", etc., and I would leave it that.

In this case, however, being that it is Denver and with the most hitter-friendly ballpark due to having the highest elevation of any field in the MLB, I do think you can at least give him a break and realize, in a different atmosphere, he might wind up having mostly good numbers. For example, in 15.2 innings pitched at Petco Park, Estevez has recorded a career 1.15 ERA.

Example: Say the Padres were to sign him. What would his ERA be if he played half his games in Petco park? Probably much lower than what he recorded because half his appearances were being played in Coors Field. Mathematically, you could envision a scenario where in the right home ballpark he could have very solid numbers overall.

Whether Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins feel the same way will be up to them. The Cubs have a lot of intriguing options in the bullpen this season. Codi Heuer will be back. Brandon Hughes, Adbert Alzolay, Danis Correa, and Jeremiah Estrada all have tremendous upside on much cheaper contracts. They also have Kyle Hendricks and Adrian Sampson whom they need to find roles for unless they want to have an eight-man rotation.