Another day, another Chicago Cubs rumor. This time, in the form of a star-studded shortstop, Dansby Swanson landing on the north side. The prediction comes from Call to the Pen and you can check that out here. It’s important to keep in mind that rumors are going to continue to swirl and kick up left and right, but Swanson is one of the shortstops whom I believe has the best chance of landing in Chicago. Let’s connect the dots.
First of all, we know, or at least firmly believe to be fact that the Cubs will not go above six years on a deal for a free-agent shortstop. It’s hard to imagine Trea Turner or Carlos Correa accepting a 6 year deal with the Cubs, assuming they can garner more elsewhere. Logistically, that leaves the Cubs with Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson as the two shortstops who could fit with their contractual desires.
It was only last winter that the Cubs made a substantial seven-year offer to Carlos Correa with a price tag north of 210M. At 30.0MM annually, don’t automatically presume that the Cubs won’t get aggressive when it matters most. These 5-6 year reports may be highly preferred, but if the front office is serious about making a substantial splash, they may have to ante up. Pertaining to Correa's bidding war last winter, let's allow it to serve as a reminder that the Cubs' front office has shown a willingness to get more aggressive than they've let on in the recent past.
We've also seen the report from Fangraphs listing their top 50 free agents and projected deals they could sign. In this version, Swanson does land with a six-year deal at 23-24M AAV. Perhaps the Cubs would entertain a 7th-year club option with a buyout attached to it if it pushes them over the top. In terms of payroll, It's obviously something the Cubs could pull off right now. However, five to six years from now, it's hard to predict how Swanson will be playing and where the team will be in general at that point.
Dansby Swanson is becoming a popular name in Chicago Cubs rumors.
It will be interesting to see if the Atlanta Braves, who failed to extend Swanson on a reported “team-friendly” deal. the way they have with so many of their young core were just looking to save a few (million) bucks and actually have no problems themselves going big if they need to. However, considering the Braves' projected payroll after tax, active contracts, arbitration, and pre-arbitration is already north of 222MM for 2023, it might prove tricky to pull off. Adding Swanson into that at another 23-24MM annually becomes a financial burden and leaves the Braves very little wiggle room.
The Braves have stated Swanson is their priority and it seems the team is just fine with longer, albeit lower AVV deals. On the flip side, the Cubs could be looking to give somebody a substantial payday but not be stuck with another excessive number of years as they were with Jason Heyward. It seems as if the Braves do free up enough salary, the Cubs could outbid them and it would be up to Swanson if he wanted to take a couple less million a year to stay in Atlanta or not. We will continue monitoring everything Cubs related as stories progress throughout the winter.