Chicago Cubs Rumors: 1 pitcher to release, 1 to trade, and 1 to keep at the deadline

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Although they've started winning of late and they still have time to alter their destiny, most experts around baseball still have the Chicago Cubs pegged as sellers at the trade deadline. That means more goodbyes to fan-favorite players and more re-evaluating of where this team is ahead of the offseason.

Where the Cubs stand to see the most change down the stretch is in their pitching staff. The rotation has not one, not two, but three trade candidates in Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, and the lone survivor of the 2016 World Series team Kyle Hendricks. Similarly, the bullpen is packed with pieces that teams should be interested in from Mark Leiter Jr. to Michael Fulmer. The staff as a whole could see an overhaul with young talent brought up to see what the Cubs have going forward.

Before that happens though, let's take a look at some of the most likely moves ahead on the pitching side. Here's one arm in the staff worth releasing or, at the very least, reconsidering, one worth trading, and one worth keeping.

The Cubs should re-evaluate Michael Rucker's future

Relief pitcher Michael Rucker has undoubtedly provided value for the Cubs over the past few years. As an up-and-down guy, he's been serviceable depth in emergencies, but wholly unremarkable nonetheless. This year, things have looked a bit uglier. After throwing for a decent enough 3.95 ERA last year, he's struggled mightily with a 5.17 ERA. Statcast is not a fan of his work either. He's in the sixth percentile of pitchers in average exit velocity given up and in the fourth in hard-hit percentage. Both stats are career worsts for him with the hard hit rate particularly egregious at 48.6%, 12.5% higher than the league average.

That's not to say he can't have some value. He's still shown flashes even in a year where he's been hit harder than ever. For depth purposes, there are worse things to have than a consistent up-down guy who can fill in well enough when needed. It's only going to get more challenging for him on this roster as the Cubs look for internal options though. Daniel Palencia has already made the jump to the majors as a reliever and more could soon follow as the team shifts to development and finding out what they have for next year.

I'll admit there's not a pitcher that feels worth releasing yet on the team, but Rucker's definitely on the bubble. His future with the club will depend on whether he can cut down that 10.2% walk rate and more consistently miss the barrel of the bat. He'll likely have a place in the Cubs bullpen in the second half following any trades, but his future beyond that is worth questioning if he can't right the ship.

Marcus Stroman would fetch a haul at the deadline

This year, the Cubs may have the crown jewel of the starting pitching trade market assuming Shohei Ohtani isn't on the trade block. Marcus Stroman, for as good as he would be to keep around for the foreseeable future, will be sought after by a lot of competitors looking to add that final piece to their rotation in order to get them over the top. Someone is going to be willing to give up a strong package for him, even if he's just a rental.

Currently, Stroman sits with a 3.09 ERA despite his recent struggles, placing him third among qualified pitchers in the National League and eighth in all of baseball. His 3.51 FIP is also very respectable. He's hardly on his best stretch with a 6.20 ERA in July, it's clear a lot of teams highly value his services. Already, the Blue Jays, Astros, and Rays are among the teams that have expressed interest in Stroman. Other pitching-needy teams like the Orioles, too, would almost certainly be in on the veteran righty.

The logic behind trading Stroman is simple - he'll almost certainly opt out of his deal and become a free agent in the offseason meaning it's time to capitalize on him at the height of his value before he potentially walks. It helps that 2024's free agent class is very pitching-heavy, boasting names like Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, and Blake Snell. It's unlikely, but there's also nothing keeping him from returning in the offseason. Stroman is a perfect fit for this team and he loves it in Chicago, but if they're out of it, it's completely clear he should be at the top of their list of pieces to move.

Kyle Hendricks could help the Cubs beyond 2023

Compared to Stroman, there's little logic behind trading Kyle Hendricks this year even if the Cubs are sellers. On paper, The Professor looks like a prime candidate to ship out. He's been everything they could've hoped for and more since returning from injury, posting a 3.38 ERA and 4.21 FIP through 64 innings and is coming off another strong performance against the White Sox.

There are a few hang-ups though. For one, he has a club option with the Cubs that's worth around $14.5 million after factoring in the buyout. In terms of a one-year deal for a back-end starter, that's not bad at all considering what he's shown this year. Dealing him would add another hole to the roster that really doesn't need to be made. While there should be a pivot toward younger arms like Ben Brown, Hendricks would be the stable veteran presence that rotation needs in order to keep running smoothly.

More importantly, he's almost certainly not going to sell for much. The sample size for this year isn't huge, yet he's coming off of two straight years with an ERA near five along with a season-ending capsular tear in his right shoulder last year. As a clear fourth or fifth man in a rotation, he'll likely draw some solid offers from teams looking to shore things up. Those offers won't be needle-movers like a package for Stroman though.

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Given the option and what Hendricks still has to offer this Cubs team, it would require an obvious win of a trade to justify moving him. That doesn't seem likely and this organization equally seems unlikely to sell for the sake of selling. It's simply hard to see a world where selling The Professor is remotely worth it.

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