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Chicago Cubs Prospects: 2023 MLB draft class fully signed, where will the players go?
The Chicago Cubs managed to sign all of their 2023 draft picks, now we just need to figure out where these players will start their professional careers.
Earlier this week we posted an article stating that the Chicago Cubs only had two players from their 2023 draft class that remained unsigned. Since that time the Cubs have signed both of those players and their draft class is now completely signed and does not have anyone that will return to school.
We’ve done deep dives on:
The picks the Cubs made in rounds 1-5
The picks the Cubs made in rounds 6-10
The picks the Cubs made in rounds 11-20
And the consequences of not signing the complete draft class
For this piece, we’ll look at not only what each player signed for, but their most likely destination to begin their journey with the Cubs. All of the signing bonus information we are using comes from MLB.com so make sure to give them the click as well.
Based on the bonus slot rules, the Cubs had a bonus pool available of $8,962,000. They could also then spend $150,000 per pick on picks 11-20, meaning they could spend a total of $10,462,000 on their 20 draft picks.
The Cubs went $448,000 over their allotted pool which will come with a 75% tax on the overage dollars meaning they’ll be fined $336,000. They also spent $1,285,000 on their 11th-20th pick meaning that the total cost for the 20 players they added in the draft was $11,031,000. To put that into perspective, the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one-year contract worth $11 million and the Cubs just got six years of cost-control for 20 players at the same price.
1st Round
Matt Shaw SS Maryland
Slot Value: $4,848,500
Signing Bonus: $4,848,500
Total Bonus Pool O/U: $0
Matt Shaw signed for his full slot bonus. Many pundits had him as the third-best college hitter in this draft behind Wyatt Langford and Dylan Crews who both went in the top-five. He’ll likely start in Rookie ball in the next couple of weeks.
In an ideal world, he’ll be there for about a week to get his timing back, then skip Low-A Myrtle Beach altogether and play third base at High-A South Bend along with Jefferson Encarnacion and Cristian Hernandez. If he rips the cover off of the ball we could see him end the season at AA Tennessee and be in Chicago by some point next year.
2nd Round
Jaxon Wiggins RHP Arkansas
Slot Value: $1,101,000
Signing Bonus: $1,401,500 (Overslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$300,500
Wiggins is going to be one of the more interesting players in this class. If I had to guess the Cubs will hold him out for the remainder of the season to allow him to continue his rehab from Tommy John surgery, but I could see him getting some work in winter league.
After that, the interest will increase even more because if they truly view him as a starter then he’ll likely be on the Cade Horton trajectory where he spends some time at Myrtle Beach until he proves he’s too good and then go to South Bend. If they view him as a reliever then he would probably still start in Myrtle Beach but he could be on more of a Daniel Palencia trajectory where they fast-track him to try to get him to the Majors by the end of next season or the beginning of 2025.
3rd Round
Josh Rivera SS Florida
Slot Value: $872,400
Signing Bonus: $725,000 (Underslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$153,100
Josh Rivera was the highest-rated college senior available and the only reason he fell to the third round was probably because he had already discussed this large signing bonus with the Cubs. It’s more common for teams to prey on college seniors and sign them to miniscule bonuses to offset other costs but he almost got a full-slot bonus because he was just that dominant this season.
I could see him following a similar trajectory to Shaw, where he could end the season as high as AA Tennessee, but it’ll be important to avoid a logjam at High-A South Bend where the Cubs will still want to have teenagers Cristian Hernandez and Jefferson Encarnacion working on their defense while having Rivera and Shaw likely adjusting to new positions off of shortstop.
4th Round
Will Sanders RHP South Carolina
Slot Value: $591,800
Signing Bonus: $600,000 (Overslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$161,300
Sanders will likely be similar to Wiggins in that the Cubs will give him time to continue recovering before assigning him anywhere. He strikes me as the more likely of the two to stick as a starter so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him spend half of the season next year (or until he dominates) in Myrtle Beach and finish the season in High-A South Bend.
5th Round
Michael Carico C Davidson
Slot Value: $416,900
Signing Bonus: $400,000 (Underslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$144,400
Signing potentially the top offensive catcher in the draft to an under slot deal in the 4th round is a pretty big win. His beginning location is going to be dependent on what the Cubs think his permanent position will be. If they want to develop him as a catcher with other strong catchers in the system already (Miguel Amaya, Pablo Aliendo, Moises Ballesteros, etc.) then I see him spending a lot of time at Myrtle Beach.
However, if they recognize that the bat is the calling card he could be on a quick trajectory similar to Haydn McGeary in last year’s draft. If the Cubs play him primarily as a 1B/DH I could see him end this season at South Bend and potentially start as high as AA Tennessee to start next season.
6th Round
Alfonsin Rosario OF P27 Academy
Slot Value: $325,600
Signing Bonus: $325,600
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$144,400
Rosario signing for his slot value despite his size and toolset is huge. He’s a toolsy prep outfielder and those guys don’t tend to move quickly though so I see him spending time in Rookie Ball for the rest of the year and potentially starting next season before moving up to Low-A Myrtle Beach later next season. He’s going to be a project for sure.
7th Round
Yahil Melendez SS B You Academy
Slot Value: $254,500
Signing Bonus: $400,000 (Overslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$289,900
Melendez didn’t sign at the slot value, and in fact, was one of the more overslot players the Cubs signed. That being said, from a tools/projection/age perspective he’s on a trajectory similar to Rosario in that I doubt he makes a debut in a full-season ball until next year and will likely spend the entire season in Low-A. Even before adding two college middle-infielders in this draft the opportunity for playtime at those positions was going to be limited, so slow-playing Melendez will be the wise choice.
8th Round
Brett Bateman OF Minnesota
Slot Value: $203,600
Signing Bonus: $180,000 (Underslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$266,300
Bateman is interesting because the glove and speed are good enough to move quickly, but the bat just isn’t there in a meaningful way. He’ll end this season in Rookie ball and I’m sure the Cubs will look to modify his launch angle slightly to get some extra bases out of his bat. I could see that process taking some time before making his debut at full-season ball where he’ll spend the majority of next season in Myrtle Beach despite being old for the level.
9th Round
Jonathan Long 1B Long Beach State
Slot Value: $179,400
Signing Bonus: $179,400
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$266,300
First basemen move through systems quicker than most. The defensive side of the position is not as demanding as many other positions on the diamond and the bat is usually good enough to put up eye-popping numbers that make teams want to get the bat into the lineup as soon as possible. Long could move quickly and move alongside Shaw and Rivera because the bat is pretty advanced. I’d expect him to end this season at Myrtle Beach and potentially open next season at South Bend.
10th Round
Luis Martinez-Gomez RHP Temple College
Slot Value: $168,300
Signing Bonus: $100,000 (Underslot)
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$198,000
This is the last of the money that the Cubs can reallocate. Any money saved on the $150,000 signing bonus allotment in rounds 11-20 can not be utilized to sign other players, however, any over-slot signings do count against the bonus pool.
Martinez-Gomez will start at Rookie ball and likely spend next season between Myrtle Beach and South Bend.
11th Round
Zyhir Hope OF Colonial Forge High School
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $400,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
This is one of the highest over-slot signings the Cubs had in the entire draft. He signed for more than the prep outfielder the Cubs drafted in the 6th round, Alfonsin Rosario. He has extremely loud tools and evidently, he does a backflip before every game (which is objectively cool) but I’ll be surprised if he finishes the 2024 season above Myrtle Beach.
12th Round
Carter Trice 2B NC State
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
13th Round
Sam Armstrong RHP Old Dominion
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $135,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
14th Round
Grayson Moore RHP Vanderbilt
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/High-A
Moore is someone that could move quickly as he’s likely going to remain a reliever with the Cubs and I could see him fast-tracked to High-A this season and he could make his major league debut towards the end of the 2024 season if everything breaks right.
15th Round
Ty Johnson RHP Ball State
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $125,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
16th Round
Daniel Brown LHP Campbell University
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Pitch Lab
This is the pick that left me scratching my head during and after the draft and I’m even more confused seeing that he commanded a $150,000 signing bonus. This man was bad, no way around it during his time at Campbell University, but perhaps the Cubs like his lefty arm and think they can turn a bad pitcher into a good pitcher with some development. We shall see.
17th Round
Ethan Flanagan LHP UCLA
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
18th Round
Brian Kalmer 3B Gonzaga
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $50,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
19th Round
Nick Dean RHP Maryland
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $75,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
20th Round
Drew Bowser 3B Stamford
Slot Value: $150,000
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Total Bonus Pool O/U: -$448,000
Projected Level for 2023: Rookie ball/Low-A
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