Chicago Cubs projected lineup, starting rotation, bullpen & closer
We initially released our prediction for the Chicago Cubs opening day 26-man roster a little over a month ago. Since then, things have changed slightly on all fronts. Seiya Suzuki's injury is problematic, and his Opening Day status is now questioned. His potential absence leaves a big hole to fill and allows someone to make the roster that wouldn't otherwise. Elsewhere, certain pitchers are performing at higher levels than others. In the bullpen, we misfired on the Andrew Chafin/Matt Moore prediction, and there are, in fact, other changes to the pen to mention in terms of current projections.
Granted, it is still very early in spring training, and these lists are subject to change daily. Still, It's essential to keep circled who's been exceeding expectations and underperforming, especially for guys already on the bubble for making the roster. Let's look at these predictions now, starting with the lineup.
Chicago Cubs projected lineup for 2023:
1. Nico Hoerner, 2B
2. Dansby Swanson, SS
3. Ian Happ, LF
4. Cody Bellinger, CF
5. Trey Mancini, DH
6. Eric Hosmer, 1B
7. Nick Madrigal, 3B
8. Christopher Morel, RF
9. Yan Gomes, C
Suzuki's name not appearing here is significant. In his place, I expect the Cubs to try out Christopher Morel and Zach McKinstry at RF. Morel appeared in 57 games last season where he played center field, accumulating 112 putouts, four assists, and three errors, suitable for a .975 FPCT. On the other hand, McKinstry has appeared in 27 games in his big league career in RF, recording a 1.000 FPCT dating back to 2020. As for Nick Madrigal making the cut, he has appeared in only one game, but so far, the experiment at 3B has been alright. He recorded back-to-back assists with solid throws to the first baseman to start the game Saturday against the Dodgers and knocked in an RBI single in the second inning.
Where we initially had Suzuki pegged for the clean-up spot, It would be nice to see Bellinger find his swing in spring training and be able to depend on him in that role. Nobody else provides much pop at that spot unless you water down the start of the lineup and move Happ or Swanson there. Nevertheless, we need to find something to be optimistic about regarding Suzuki. He won't be out forever, and the good thing is we're still nearly a month away from Opening Day. Worst-case scenarios don't cripple the Cubs for too long into the regular season.
Chicago Cubs projected starting rotation for 2023:
1. Marcus Stroman
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Justin Steele
4. Drew Smyly
5. Javier Assad
Whichever one makes it to the rotation, the other two will be utilized as long relief options out of the bullpen. Assad, however, does still have three minor-league options remaining. Therefore, he could still be sent to Iowa if he falls off this spring, but everything looks good for him so far. Justin Steele was recently scratched from his start with general arm fatigue, but there's no reason to believe he will miss time. Jordan Bastian has since stated that Steele thinks he will make his next start.
The first four are locks for a spot in the rotation unless something drastic happens. With Kyle Hendricks set to start on the IL, we know the Cubs' competition for the 5th starter spot will be one of the more exciting stories throughout spring training. Adrian Sampson, unfortunately, got hit hard in his spring debut, allowing four earned runs on three hits and a walk. All three of those hits were home runs. On the other hand, Assad faced a potent Dodgers lineup Saturday afternoon and fired two scoreless frames. Wesneski has yet to pitch.
Chicago Cubs projected bullpen/closer for 2023:
1. Hayden Wesneski
2. Adrian Sampson
3. Keegan Thompson
4. Adbert Alzolay
5. Brandon Hughes
6. Jeremiah Estrada
7. Brad Boxberger (closer)
8. Michael Fulmer (closer)
First, there's a good chance we'll see a closer-by-committee role between Brad Boxberger, Brandon Hughes, and Michael Fulmer. Hughes remains the one left-handed pitcher at the big league level, whereas Boxberger has experience closing in the past. He posted 41 saves in 2015, along with 32 in 2018. Fulmer recorded 14 in 2021, and therefore it's safe to say, based on matchups and rest purposes, that these will be the three to assume the position.
This time, we're leaving Roenis Elias off the list, who gave up two runs in two innings in his only spring appearance. He certainly will be given another look, as will everybody on this list. Jeremiah Estrada has been added, who we initially thought would get a call-up at some point, but he looked fabulous in his first outing, recording one inning of work with one punchout, no runs, no hits, and no walks. The 24-year-old recorded a 3.18 ERA in 5.2 IP last season.
An honorable mention is Caleb Kilian, after firing two solid innings of work against the Diamondbacks on Monday afternoon. If he keeps looking that sharp, it makes everything more complicated, precisely what we want to see.