Chicago Cubs bubble roster projections: Who are the last 3 in, last 3 out?

With Opening Day only a little over a week away, the 26-man roster is rapidly shaping up for the Chicago Cubs. More cuts came recently in Caleb Kilian, Jeremiah Estrada, Bailey Horn, Nick Neidert, and Eric Stout. Over the next few days, we can expect the next wave of imminent cuts that are on the way, and we will have more clarification of which players on the bubble will make the roster and which will begin the year in Triple-A Iowa. Let's get right into it, starting with the last three players we believe will make the cut.

Chicago Cubs bubble roster, last 3 in - 3. Edwin Rios

Although he is only batting .194 in Spring Training, Edwin Rios is the left-handed power hitter the Cubs are certainly considering for Opening Day. Of his six hits, three are home runs, and he's driven in 5 RBIs in his 31 ABs. We've always known that Rios is a power hitter, given his .273 ISO. For 2023, ZiPS projections have him listed for a slash of .216/.283/.435 with 17 HRs and 52 RBIs. The batting average, you hope, will be higher than that projection, but if Rios can manage the 17/52 from the bottom third of the order, it makes sense to keep him on the 26-man roster.

In 2022, Rios did manage a slash of .244/.293/.500 with seven home runs and 17 RBIs, albeit in a small sample of 86 at-bats. He should be a regular in the lineup against right-handed pitchers if he can maintain anything close to those numbers. I expect to see him in the lineup against sinker ballers, notably where he slashed .364/.417/.909, with a .400 BABIP and .545 ISO in 11 ABs in 2022.

Chicago Cubs bubble roster, last 3 in - 1. Patrick Wisdom

Patrick Wisdom's future with the Chicago Cubs may come down to his production in 2023. He needs to play more efficient defense, but he makes the cut on the main roster because of his ability to hit for power. Where Christopher Morel is also a utility man, Wisdom is primarily a third baseman who can fill in for first base duties when necessary. He will also need to cut down on his strikeouts this coming season and learn to hit for more contact. The Cubs failed to sign a bonafide third baseman this past winter, so Wisdom gets the nod by default.

Wisdom was the worst defender on the Cubs last season. Looking at third base specifically, his .948 fielding percentage was well below league average, and his -12 runs prevented and -15 outs above average only made matters worse for the Cubs. With such an emphasis on defense this year, this won't fly. He will have to make critical adjustments, but most importantly, keep swatting home runs and cut down on strikeouts. Otherwise, he's on the hot seat and may be one of the first sent down, as others are waiting in the wings that can play 3B if needed.

Chicago Cubs bubble roster, last 3 out - 3. Zach McKinstry

Last season, after the Cubs traded Chris Martin for Zach McKinstry, he was given a substantial role offensively to see if he needed time to find a rhythm. In The minors, he's always hit well, slashing a career .278/.366/.434. Unfortunately, those stats have never carried over in the MLB. Last season, McKinstry slashed just .199/.273/.361 in 166 ABs. In Spring Training, he's only batting 0.69 in 29 at-bats, and the fact is that the Cubs have better bench options right now.

McKinstry's ability to play multiple positions well does offer a decent floor, but unless he can find a way to hit at the major league level, the defense won't earn him a spot on the 26-man roster. Especially with the Cubs having a much better roster in 2023 than in 2022, history seems doomed to repeat itself for McKinstry in terms of finding everyday playing time. I won't be surprised to see him DFAed, traded, or start at Triple-A Iowa if he clears waivers and is outrighted to the minors, given that he has zero options remaining.

Chicago Cubs bubble roster, last 3 out - 2. Miles Mastrobuoni

I liked what I saw from Miles Mastrobuoni in the World Baseball Classic. However, the Cubs have plenty of infield defense with Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom. Mastrobuoni is an exceptional player to have to wait at Triple-A Iowa, and he will almost certainly be called up at some point in the season if an injury occurs. In the meantime, I don't expect him to break camp with the main roster, but he should be one of the first to get a chance if he exceeds expectations in Iowa.

Whoever first sees playing time at the MLB level will likely be a battle between Mastrobuoni and McKinstry. Both are versatile defensively but have yet to see the offensive results carry over from the minors to the majors. In the WBC, Mastrobuoni showed an ability to go the other way, even taking Cubs pitcher Roenis Elias deep into the left-center gap in Team Italy's matchup against Team Cuba. Mastrobuoni, unlike McKinstry, has never truly been given a chance to shine in the MLB, and he deserves one.

Chicago Cubs bubble roster, last 3 out - 3. Keegan Thompson

Due to Keegan Thompson's velocity being way down this spring and only pitching four innings this spring, something is undoubtedly off that we aren't getting a full story on yet. Nevertheless, I expect everyone will soon be surprised that he won't start on the Cubs' main roster. It's a bold prediction, but the fact that he is far from ramped up for the role the Cubs envision for him is troublesome.

There are a million different things you could speculate on that could be causing Thompson's drop in velocity. Nevertheless, the Cubs are looking to compete in 2023, and Thompson needs to have this issue behind him if we're hoping for him to fill a bulk reliever role, where he comes out for multiple innings every few games. I'm sure we will get more clarification soon as to if there is anything injury-wise going on with Thompson. In the meantime, don't be surprised if he's left off the Opening Day roster with a lingering issue.