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Chicago Cubs 2024 Projections expect a major regression without Cody Bellinger
The Bullpen
2023 Performances: 3.0 WAR
Adbert Alzolay 1.5 WAR
Julian Merryweather 0.9 WAR
Mark Leiter Jr. 0.6 WAR
Michael Fulmer 0.4 WAR
Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR
Luke Little 0.1 WAR
Keegan Thompson 0.1 WAR
Brandon Hughes 0.0 WAR
Michael Rucker -0.1 WAR
Anthony Kay -0.1 WAR
Jose Cuas -0.1 WAR
Brad Boxberger -0.2 WAR
Jeremiah Estrada -0.4 WAR
2024 Projections: 3.4 WAR
Adbert Alzolay 0.7 WAR
Julian Merryweather 0.5 WAR
Hector Neris 0.4 WAR
Mark Leiter Jr. 0.4 WAR
Ben Brown 0.4 WAR
Yency Almonte 0.3 WAR
Daniel Palencia 0.3 WAR
Luke Little 0.3 WAR
Jose Cuas 0.1 WAR
Michael Rucker 0.1 WAR
Keegan Thompson 0.0 WAR
Cam Sanders 0.0 WAR
Ethan Roberts 0.0 WAR
Bailey Horn -0.1 WAR
There is a certain level of this that is misleading, but bullpens are such a crap shoot, to begin with, that it’s tough to really get too in the weeds about it. The 2024 team is projected to be a better bullpen than the 2023 team which should be music to a Cubs fan's ears but there’s a certain level of mystery that surrounds the situation because the 2023 team had five guys combine for a -0.9 WAR and the 2024 team is projected to have only one guy go negative.
If that’s the case then the Cubs will be over the moon and won’t be concerned about the regression they’ll see from Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. or the lack of progression they see in Daniel Palencia.
The truth is probably a little more difficult than the projections laid out. If I told you that Alzolay, Merryweather, and Leiter Jr. would all regress after being the only trustworthy pieces in a bad bullpen you’d be rightfully concerned heading into the 2024 season. The Cubs have added interesting pieces with Neris, and Almonte and it will be nice to see guys like Little, Cuas, and even Ben Brown get some use out of a bullpen run by someone like Counsell with an aptitude for getting the most out of it but this is definitely an area to address near the trade deadline.